2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
April 30, 2023
SportPicks NBA Preview w/ Smokehouse Mike
Sunday April 30
Playoffs 2nd round
Miami Heat (44-38) 8th in the East versus NY Knicks (47-35) 5th in the East.
Knicks are a 5.5 point favorite and the total is 209.5
Heat’s Oladipo,knee,is out for the season;Bam,hamstring, is a game time decision;Herro,hand, is out. Knicks Randal,ankle, is a game time decision;Sims,shoulder, is out for the season;Grimes, shoulder, is a game time decision.
Series is tied 0-0
Vegas action shows 65% lean toward the Knicks and 80% favor the over.
GS Warriors- (44-38) 6th in the West versus Sacramento Kings (48-34) 3rd in the West.
Sacramento is 1.5 point favorite and the total is 228.5
Warriors Iguodala,wrist, is out; Baldwin,toe, is out. Kings’ Dellavedova,finger, is out.
Series is tied 3-3
Vegas action shows 63% favor the Kings and a pick em for the over/under
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
