2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
May 05, 2023
SportPicks NBA Preview w/ Smokehouse Mike
Friday May 5th
Playoffs
Boston Celtics (57-25) 2nd in the East Versus Philadelphia 76ers(54-28) 3rd in the East
Boston is a 2.5 point favorite and Vegas has the total at 214.5
Celtics’ Gallinari,knee, is out. 76ers Imbiid, knee, is a game time decision.
Vegas early action shows 67% leant toward Boston and 84% favor the over
Series is tied 1-1
Denver Nuggets (53-29)1st in the West versus Phoenix Suns (45-37) 4th in the West
Suns are a 4 point favorite and Vegas has the total at 224.5
Suns’ Paul,groin, is out.
Vegas early action shows 59% lean toward Nuggets and 54% favor the over.
Nuggets lead the series 2-0
SMOKEHOUSE MIKE Pick of the day:
DENVER SPREAD +4
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
