2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
May 09, 2023
SportPicks NBA Preview w/ Smokehouse Mike
Tuesday May 9th
Philadelphia 76ers (54-28)3rd in the East versus Boston Celtics (57-25)2nd in the East
Boston is a 7.5 point favorite and Vegas has the total at 213.5
76ers' Imbiid, knee, is a game time decision. Celtics Gallinari, knee, is out.
Vegas action shows 55% lean toward Boston and 77% favor the over
Series is tied 2-2
Phoenix Suns (45-37)4th in the West versus Denver Nuggets (53-29)1st in the West
Denver is a 5.5 point favorite and the total is 228.
Suns’ Paul, groin, is out.
Vegas action shows 72% lean toward Nuggets and 53% favor the under.
Series is tied 2-2
SmokeHouse Mike’s pick of the day:
MLB: Tampa Bay Rays $line,
St Louis Cards V Chicago Cubs Over 7.5
NBA: Celtics V 76ers Over 213.5
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
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