Barnes Betting Report: Political Markets, Mid-June 2023
News & Notes
Politics: More candidates continue to enter GOP side and more continue to opt out of Democratic side. Expect that trend to continue. Trump indicted on federal charges over classified documents in Florida, while increasing talk in D.C. of Biden scandals related to Ukraine and Burisma bribery allegations, with talk of tapes. RFK appeared on Joe Rogan in his podcast-driven campaign strategy of 2023 in the build up to 2024. DeSantis record-sized warchest of $300M+ hasn't yet translated into voting support as his poll numbers collapse across the nation.
Economy: recessinary signals rise as credit crunch builds, Fed pauses interest rate hikes, China struggles to rebound post-Covid, Saudis try stop oil price collapse from economic future fears globally, Russia survives sanctions, BRICS preaches alternatives to the dollar, housing keeps CPI temporarily high as other price trends show disinflationary trends with rare disinflation in services and contracting quarters in domestic output and domestic income, two indicators of recession.
Geopolitics: Ukraine counteroffensive fails to translate to real war victories, increasing pressure on that geopolitical failure attributable to the Biden administration that went all-in on Russian defeat. Central American struggles send migrant flows rushing across American border, as Robert Kennedy visits and calls a disaster. South American governments face impeachments, indictments, Venezuelan starvation, and Argentinian dollar collapse. Biden allies across the globe see political struggles, even in western Europe as Macron's pensions reforms lead to violent protests, the Tories in the UK are hated, the Germans see the populist AfD take over 2nd place in polls, the Hungarians remain resilient in opposition, Erdogan survives western election interference in Turkey, and the Saudis continue their royals-radicals reconcoliation with Iran and Syria, as the Israelis face internal turmoil over judicial reform debates. African nations increasingly flaunt the west, condemn Gates "experimentation" in their nations, and align further and deeper with China's Road-and-Belt initiative to extract African resources using cheap loans for infrastructure investment. Almost all global economic indicators signal deep globalized, synchronized recession at worse than 2008 scale.
Betting Portfolio: Returns & Recommendations
* Marketplace that may be useful: https://polymarket.com/markets
1. DeSantis Nominee: Up 33% profit in three months. Current at 24%. Recommendation: SELL down to 15%.
2. Trump Nominee: Up 20% profit in three months. Current at 60%. Recommendation: BUY up to 80%.
3. Biden Nominee: Up 20% profit in three months. Current at 72%. Recommendation: HOLD. BUY if it drops below 70%, SELL if goes above 85%.
4. RFK Nominee: Up 330% profit in three months. Current at 7%. Recommendation: BUY up to 10%.
5. DeSantis General: Up 33% profit in three months. Current at 16%. Recommendation: SELL down to 5%.
6. Trump General: Up 10% profit over three months. Current at 23%. Recommendation: BUY up to 50%.
7. Biden General: Up 30% profit over three months. Current at 38%. Recommendation: HOLD until 40% or higher. SELL if gets above 50%.
8. Kennedy General: Up 560% profit in two months. Current at 6%. Recommendation: HOLD. BUY if it goes below 5%, SELL if it goes above 10%.
9. Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crime and Russia before November 1? Currently at 30%. SELL down to 10%.
10. Fed rates. 10a/ Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? Currently at 19%. BUY yes up to 70%.
10b/ Equally, will FED raise rates at July meeting? Yes currently at 34%. SELL down to 10%.
10c/ Equally, will FED raise rates after July meeting? Yes currently at 73%. SELL down to 20%.
11. Will Trump be indicted a third time before August 31? Currently at 90%. SELL down to 30%.
12. Will Trump win Iowa caucus? Currently at 64%. Buy YES up to 80%.
