Barnes Betting Report: Political Markets, Mid-June 2023
News & Notes
- Politics: Campaign finance reports came in as expected, with Trump dominating grassroots small donors, DeSantis cashing in on big donors (especially) to his PACs, and RFK peaking at the end doubling his quarter haul in just the last 3 days. Polls continue to show Trump surging in both the primary and general election, with RFK holding steady around 15% to 20% against Biden’s 60% in summer polls.
- Economy: More news shows unemployment likely to peak and stocks likely to start full tumble around 2nd quarter to 3rd quarter of 2024, peak impact at primary season and for the general election. Of note, the person most likely to benefit this is Trump. Fed talks big of raising rates again in July, though post-pause rate hikes are uncommon.
- Geopolitics: Ukraine war shows no end in sight, as US ups aid, despite little headway in Ukrainian counteroffensive to date. Immigration continues unabated along the board, making it a likely issue in 2024, as immigration-fueled riots rip through France.
Betting Portfolio: Returns & Recommendations
Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
