2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
July 17, 2023
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
HEADS UP NEW MARKET WATCH
Hungarian elections Date April 2026
Who will win the 2026 Hungary general election?
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhungaryparli/hungary-parliament/kxhungaryparli-26
Who will be the Prime Minister of Hungary after their election?
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnexthungarypm/next-prime-minister-of-hungary/kxnexthungarypm-26may01
Orban has a 2/3 majority and his party has held power since 2010. The entire liberal EU Globo homo establishment is going to wage war on him to get him out.
Orban is trading at 44% to be the next prime minster. I already put 0.15% bet on him.
Based on his messaging as the anti war candidate NOT just the anti EU candidate this positions him as the favorite alone. With a long history of WALKING THE TALK TOO.
However, I don't want a repeat of Romania or the netherlands for that matter @SportsPicks. I'm building out those machine learning datelining technique so we know what's on people minds.
Hungary: will Orbán be voted out of office in 2026?
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