2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
SportsPicks@SportsPicks
July 23, 2023
Barbie Box Office Analysis
Currently, Polymarket offers a better than 33 to 1 return on whether the final actual Barbie box office (not the estimates) show first weekend of release topping $150M domestically. I think betting against $150M+ box office at those odds would be a smart bet, and here's why.
Barbie box office was $70M for Friday, but was actually $48M from Friday ticket sales, as that "Friday" total includes Wednesday and Thursday ticket sales due to a large number of pre-booked previews. Barbie's marketing campaign got a lot of pre-booked tickets for Friday as well. The box office estimators assume Barbie will have no Friday-to-Saturday drop off, and total $48M again, and then they expect only a small Sunday drop-off to $37M on Sunday for a domestic weekend projection of $155M. Here's why I think that is less than the 97% chance the markets give it.
First, since Barbie isn't really a kid's film, a bigger Sunday drop-off should be expected, closer to the 30% norm for such films. Second, the Saturday and Sunday box offices will be impacted more by word-of-mouth than the marketing-dominated Friday box office numbers, though the real impact of word of mouth won't be felt until weekend 2. If Barbie drops off 20% on Saturday, then Saturday's total comes in under $40M, and if Sunday's drop off fits the norm of 30%, then Sunday's total will be under $30M, and that brings the box office total closer to $140M than safely over $150M. That would be a big change from the $170M projected after the $22M preview number posted, and suggest word of mouth on the film is much more negative than the marketing portrayed. It would also, as a side point, be a basis for estimating damages for those claiming the false marketing campaign tricked them into seeing the film. (E.G., at least 30% of the film's box office is from fraud.)
Hence, getting 33 to 1 odds is worth the investment if you are able and so inclined. I would take the bet up to 50% odds.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
What else you may like…
Videos
Podcasts
Posts
Articles
2025 NFL Draft Prospect - Anton Popov
My Guy Elio & I were BACK AT IT AGAIN Last Night, on "The Unscripted Sportscast"!! We were BLESSED to have Anton Popov, from Warner University & Barton College, join us to share his journey towards the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft!! From his roots in Raleigh, NC... All the way to the FBS Tropical Bowl, this young man has PUT THE WORK IN on the field & in the classroom!! We want to wish him the BEST OF LUCK in his preparations for the Draft & We VERY MUCH APPRECIATE him taking the time to join us and talk some Football!! KEEP UP THE GRIND BROTHER & I FIRMLY BELIEVE the Future is BRIGHT no matter what road life takes you down!! KEEP AN EYE OUT FOLKS for another HIDDEN GEM in the 2025 NFL Draft!!!!
00:22:33
2025 NFL Draft Prospect - Carl Smith Jr.
Once again, My guy Elio & myself were fortunate enough to have WR Carl Smith Jr. from Robert Morris University, join us for our show "The Unscripted Sportscast" last night!! The pleasure was ALL OURS, as he took time out of his busy schedule to sit down with us & talk some Football!! He shares his journey, from a kid growing up in Darby Township, PA to HIDDEN GEM in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft!! This is another young man with a VERY BRIGHT FUTURE ahead of him & we want to WISH HIM NOTHING BUT THE BEST!! Continue to grind it out with your INCREDIBLE WORK ETHIC, always remain a STUDENT OF THE GAME, lean on that DYNAMIC SUPPORT SYSTEM, & continue to STAY HUMBLE... and I have no doubt we'll see you playing on Sundays in the Fall!! Thank You so much for taking the time to come on the show. It's VERY MUCH APPRECIATED & You're welcome ANYTIME!! Good Luck in ALL YOU DO on & off the field!! KEEP AN EYE OUT FOLKS!! Mr. Smith is coming to an NFL Franchise near you!!!!
00:29:51
SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
@SportsPicks
What are your thoughts of Kash Patel being nominated to be the head of the ATF in addition to the FBI? Is that possible? Would the Senate go for this?
I am asking because from the video below by Jared @ Guns and Gadgets, it seems that it was leaked that Trump will officially nominate Kash Patel shortly.
Crick's Picks: NCAAB, NBA, & NHL - 2/22/25
We're BACK AT IT Folks!! It's been a few days since I posted my picks, due to the fact there wasn't a whole lot of action goin on around the Sports Universe for the last week... Well, let me rephrase that... There was a lot goin on, with All Star Breaks & the 4 Nations Tourney in Hockey, but even with College Hoops still rollin along... The betting options were limited to say the least!! However, Today... WE'RE BACK BABY, as we have a MASSIVE SLATE across all sports & I've got a MONSTER CARD!! My results will be posted below, and I'll include the 4 Nations Results, but they won't be factored into our overall numbers for NCCAB, NBA, & NHL because I want to keep all that separate since they weren't "Actual NHL Games"... Let's see if we can get this thing CRANKED BACK UP THE RIGHT WAY!! You & Your Beautiful Families STAY SAFE Out There!!! Good Luck, Good Gamblin, & Go Vols!!!!
ATS = Against The Spread
ML = MoneyLine
ALT = Alternate Spreads
SGP = Same Game Parlay
TT = Team Total
1/2 Unit = .5 Units (50% Unit)
1/4 Unit = .25 Units (25% Unit)
SPRINKLE = At Your Discretion (DON'T GO CRAZY!!)
**THESE ARE NOT ...
