Currently, Polymarket offers a better than 33 to 1 return on whether the final actual Barbie box office (not the estimates) show first weekend of release topping $150M domestically. I think betting against $150M+ box office at those odds would be a smart bet, and here's why.

Barbie box office was $70M for Friday, but was actually $48M from Friday ticket sales, as that "Friday" total includes Wednesday and Thursday ticket sales due to a large number of pre-booked previews. Barbie's marketing campaign got a lot of pre-booked tickets for Friday as well. The box office estimators assume Barbie will have no Friday-to-Saturday drop off, and total $48M again, and then they expect only a small Sunday drop-off to $37M on Sunday for a domestic weekend projection of $155M. Here's why I think that is less than the 97% chance the markets give it.

First, since Barbie isn't really a kid's film, a bigger Sunday drop-off should be expected, closer to the 30% norm for such films. Second, the Saturday and Sunday box offices will be impacted more by word-of-mouth than the marketing-dominated Friday box office numbers, though the real impact of word of mouth won't be felt until weekend 2. If Barbie drops off 20% on Saturday, then Saturday's total comes in under $40M, and if Sunday's drop off fits the norm of 30%, then Sunday's total will be under $30M, and that brings the box office total closer to $140M than safely over $150M. That would be a big change from the $170M projected after the $22M preview number posted, and suggest word of mouth on the film is much more negative than the marketing portrayed. It would also, as a side point, be a basis for estimating damages for those claiming the false marketing campaign tricked them into seeing the film. (E.G., at least 30% of the film's box office is from fraud.)

Hence, getting 33 to 1 odds is worth the investment if you are able and so inclined. I would take the bet up to 50% odds.