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Barbie Box Office Analysis

Currently, Polymarket offers a better than 33 to 1 return on whether the final actual Barbie box office (not the estimates) show first weekend of release topping $150M domestically. I think betting against $150M+ box office at those odds would be a smart bet, and here's why.

Barbie box office was $70M for Friday, but was actually $48M from Friday ticket sales, as that "Friday" total includes Wednesday and Thursday ticket sales due to a large number of pre-booked previews. Barbie's marketing campaign got a lot of pre-booked tickets for Friday as well. The box office estimators assume Barbie will have no Friday-to-Saturday drop off, and total $48M again, and then they expect only a small Sunday drop-off to $37M on Sunday for a domestic weekend projection of $155M. Here's why I think that is less than the 97% chance the markets give it.

First, since Barbie isn't really a kid's film, a bigger Sunday drop-off should be expected, closer to the 30% norm for such films. Second, the Saturday and Sunday box offices will be impacted more by word-of-mouth than the marketing-dominated Friday box office numbers, though the real impact of word of mouth won't be felt until weekend 2. If Barbie drops off 20% on Saturday, then Saturday's total comes in under $40M, and if Sunday's drop off fits the norm of 30%, then Sunday's total will be under $30M, and that brings the box office total closer to $140M than safely over $150M. That would be a big change from the $170M projected after the $22M preview number posted, and suggest word of mouth on the film is much more negative than the marketing portrayed. It would also, as a side point, be a basis for estimating damages for those claiming the false marketing campaign tricked them into seeing the film. (E.G., at least 30% of the film's box office is from fraud.)

Hence, getting 33 to 1 odds is worth the investment if you are able and so inclined. I would take the bet up to 50% odds.

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Crick's Picks: NFL - Week 8

Well it wasn't the ENCORE we were looking for, after our MONSTER CARD in Week 6, but we did manage to book another WINNER in the NFL last weekend!! Even losing our first 5-Unit of the season(Thanks Denver... BUMS I Say!!), it wasn't enough to put us in red when the smoke cleared!! We've slowly been GRINDING our way out of this MASSIVE HOLE I put us in to start the season, but IT'S A MARATHON... NOT A SPRINT My Friends!! What is it they used to say?? Ya know, in the book they read to us as kids... Ah yes that's it!! SLOW & STEADY WINS THE RACE!! We're gonna STAY ON OUR GRIND this weekend, and see if we can put a few more shekels back in the ol' piggy bank!! It's NATIONAL TIGHT END WEEK BABY!! Since no one else will say it.... Y'all leave me NO CHOICE!! WHAT COULD GO WRONG?!?! You & Your Beautiful Families STAY SAFE Out There!!! Good Luck, Good Gamblin, & Go Bucs!!!!

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ATTD = Anytime Touchdown Scorer

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No wonder I can’t make any money around here.

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1981376983708610634

Oh, and we’re still waiting for those Epstein files.

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