2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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July 26, 2023
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FUN SIDE BETS (Hidden DRAW Game?)
Posting this for a soccer game I see today in Mexico.
10/31/2025
Liga MX
Cruz Azul
Puebla
Model Shows Favored = TEAM "Cruz"
Model Favored Rating = 382
Favored Shots on Target Deficit {-1,1,2} For 34 Historical matches
SOT Side by Side (Cruz Vs. Puebla) = 1.3 vs 2.4
Average Scores Historically (Cruz vs Puebla) = 1.99 vs 1.29
A matchup in Australia (Brisbane Vs. Melb City) showed a similar result in my model and ended up as "DRAW" result. My model didn't tag that one either as a draw it basically finds these matchup's to be toss up's which might be fair.
You can see above that the Shot on Target deficit might pull Cruz down to Puebla's level. My Shots on Target represent potential goals as they multiple the actual number by the team's goalie miss rate i.e. 5 shots on target times 0.2 would be 1 potential goal.
This isn't a recommendation just information. I'm adding it to me bets for the day as a DRAW game.
Good luck!
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
