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Barnes Betting Report: August 1, 2023
August 01, 2023

News & Notes

  • Politics: The entire managerial class in control of American politics currently, in the military, financial and legal arenas, prove a level of ineptitude, decrepitude, and dangerousness that may exceed the empire-killing elites of pre-WWI that ended the centuries-old empires of Britain, the Hapsburgs, the Ottomans, and the Russians in less than a decade. The Fed, looking at worse data than the summer of 2019 when they cut rates out of concern, now raise rates instead. The Pentagon props up a disastrous war overseas, while losing power globally to the rise of the new global south, with Putin its figurehead. The DOJ indicts Trump again on the most trumped-up charges yet. America heads into the depths of the declining empire stage, and that tends to be ugly, and more variable, than most epochs. But, remember, variability itself can factor into profits on predictability markets. A mindset lesson: the unpredictable is, itself, predictable. 
  • Economy: Most Americans see the economy as bad, and that is likely to worsen according to global trade data, key manufacturing data, costly housing markets, declining savings, rising debt, freezing credit, and consumer uneasiness. Near impossible to imagine a Democratic reelection in 2024 with war abroad, recession at home, and scandal everywhere. 
  • Geopolitics: War in Ukraine backfires, as the counteroffensive fails, Russian strength grows, Niger coups succeed, China struggles with its own stagnation and managed decline, Germany sinks into recession along with the EuroZone, the neo-con Tories see likely demise in the UK, and the most popular pols are populists like Putin in Russia & the anti-crime Bitcoin-loving leader of El Salvador. Populism’s rise likely just begun. 

 

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Free Picks for Saturday

*Note: the pick is for the team listed first, in all caps. For MLB the pick is for that team to win the game on the money line. For the game total pick, the pick is for both teams combined score to finish UNDER that total for the game. For the college football picks, the pick if listed by a PLUS sign is for that team to NOT lost by more than that margin; e.g., at +13.5, the pick is for that team to either win or not lose by 14 or more. The % listed in front of each pick is the recommended MAXIMUM percentage of your bankroll -- the amount you have set aside for the year to use for trading/betting on prediction markets/sportsbooks to placer on that particular pick. The listed line is the targeted line that is available in the markets; the "ok to" is if you cannot find that line, it is ok to take the pick up to that point; e.g., if it says "ok to -130" that means it's ok to take as long as it's not higher than -130 (e.g., -135) or if it says "ok to +13" that means it's ok at any spread +13 or ...

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Note: 2% of bankroll max recommended on American football unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended on soccer onless otherwise noted. 

 

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