2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
September 03, 2023
Betting Report: American Football, September 3, 2024
Nice profitable start to the season. We even nearly won all four long shots straight up! As important, from a YPP perspective -- my favorite metric for long-term sustained success in college football -- our predictions beat the market place going 7-4-3 across the 14 contests, which would typically result in the same profits we earned this week.
YTD (Year to Date)
American Football
Risked: 32% of bankroll
Net: 11.9% of bankroll
Profit Rate: 37%
Annual Rate of Return: 618%
NCAA_Football_2023_-_Sheet35.pdf
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A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
