2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
September 03, 2023
Betting Report: European Football, September 3, 2024
A wash for this week, with a nice profit from the Champions League playoff games and a good finish on Sunday. Of interesting note, from my favorite metric for long-term predictive accuracy and sustainable profitability -- expected goals -- this was actually our best week yet, with a 6-0-2 record against the predicted marking from the bookies. Over time, that will turn a handsome profit, once the noise of luck balances out.
European Football 2023
YTD Report (Year To Date)
Risked: 72% of bankroll
Net: 5.8% of bankroll
Rate of Return: 8%
Annualized Profit Rate: 104%
EPL_2023_-_PROFITS.pdf
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
