2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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September 03, 2023
Betting Report: European Football, September 3, 2024
A wash for this week, with a nice profit from the Champions League playoff games and a good finish on Sunday. Of interesting note, from my favorite metric for long-term predictive accuracy and sustainable profitability -- expected goals -- this was actually our best week yet, with a 6-0-2 record against the predicted marking from the bookies. Over time, that will turn a handsome profit, once the noise of luck balances out.
European Football 2023
YTD Report (Year To Date)
Risked: 72% of bankroll
Net: 5.8% of bankroll
Rate of Return: 8%
Annualized Profit Rate: 104%
EPL_2023_-_PROFITS.pdf
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Betting Psychology and Risk Management
This post is partially motivated by the incoming surge in official picks we are going to have as well as the dismay here some have experienced with the downturn we've had over the past few weeks. Risk-based moneymaking is not an easy pursuit and the vast majority of people who try their hand at it fail. It is important that you arm yourselves with as may tools as possible so that you will be in the profitable minority. Most people find it difficult enough to look at their investment portfolios during a relatively mild downturn, and that's with professional hedge fund managers doing insulating them from the very real challenges of risking our money and making a profit from it. Anyone who is active here is choosing to take that risk into their own hands. There are big rewards for this but also very big risks. This post is about preventing you from being taken out by those risk.
The primary way that we mount our offence us through our edge. A statistical...
