2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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September 06, 2023
Barnes Betting Report: Shorting the Squares, All Football, Week 1
These are not official picks; this is just For Your Information. If you wanted to short the squares (e.g., bet against the public where the public has 70%+ leans on a game) and follow in the footsteps of the wise guys, sharps, and smart $, these would be your picks this week:
NFL
BUCS +6 VIKINGS
JETS +2.5 BILLS
LIONS-CHIEFS UNDER 53
JAGS-COLS OVER 45
NCAAF
ILLINOIS +3 KANSAS
VANDY +10 WAKE
NCST +7.5 NOTRE DAME
TULSA +34.5 WASHINGTON
MIAMI +4.5 A&M
SMU +16 OK
SHST +14 AIR FORCE
UTSA -13 TEXAS ST.
KENT ST. +38 ARK
MTSU +20.5 MISSOURI
TEXAS TECH +6.5 OREGON
NMEX ST. +10.5 LIBERTY
OHIO +3 FAU
TEMPLE +9 RUTGERS
STANFORD +29 USC
Here's all the games the public has lopsided action on, regardless of sharp involvement, and which line you would take if you wanted to bet AGAINST the public.
NFL
PATS +4 EAGLES
JETS +2.5 BILLS
COLTS +5 JAGS
BROWNS +2.5 49ERS
TEXANS +10 RAVENS
CARDINALS +7 COMMANDERS
BUCS +6 VIKINGS
FINS-CHARGERS UNDER 51
BILLS-JETS UNDER 46.5
TEXANS +360 RAVENS
COLS +185 JAGS
CARDINALS +245 COMMANDERS
BUCS +205 VIKINGS
PATS +165 EAGLES
RAMS +195 SEAHAWKS
NCAAF
BAYLOR +7.5 UTAH
NEBRASKA +3 COLORADO
TROY +16.5 KANSAS ST.
NCST +7.5 NOTRE DAME
PURDUE +3 VA TECH
IOWA ST +4 IOWA
MIAMI +4.5 A&M
UNLV +37 MICHIGAN
TULANE +7 OLE MISS
UTSA -13 TEXAS ST.
KENT ST. +38 ARKANSAS
APP ST. +19 UNC
SMU +15.5 OK
NMEXST +10.5 LIBERTY
PITT -7 CINCY
ARK ST. +21.5 MEMPHIS
BOISE +3.5 UCF
MTSU +20.5 MISSOURI
RICE +9.5 HOUSTON
TEXAS TECH +6.5 OREGON
GA ST. -3 UCONN
ARIZONA +8.5 MISS. ST
TEMPLE +9 RUTGERS
SAN DIEGO ST. +14 UCLA
WASH ST. +6.5 WISKY
SOUTHERN MISS +31 FSU
ASU +3.5 OKST
CAL +6.5 AUBURN
STANFORD +29.5 USC
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
