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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokehouse Mike’s NBA Monday October 30th

Recap:
Denver covered as a 3.5 point favorite against OKC winning 128 to 95
The under cashed in.

Atlanta covered as a 6.5 point dog against Millwaukee winning 127 to110.
The under cashed in.

GS covered as a 7.5 point favorite against Houston winning 106 to 95.
The under cashed in.

Philadelphia covered as a 9.5 point favorite against POrtland winning 126 to 98.
The over cashed in

Sacramento covered as a 2.5 point favorite against Lakers winning 132 to 127 in OT.
The over cashed in

Clippers covered as a 9.5 point favorite against San Antonio winning 123 to 83.
The under cashed in.

Preview:
Boston travels to Washington as a 10.5 point favorite with a total of 229.5
Boston’s Queta is out. Washington’s Shamet is out . Gafford is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 52% lean toward Boston and 53% favor the under.

Chicago travels to Indiana as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 229.5
Chicago LAvine is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 69% lean toward Indiana and 74% favor the over.

Brooklyn travels to Charlotte as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 227.5.
Brooklyn’s Johnson and Claxton are out.Charlotte’s Ntilikina, Martin and Bridges are out.
Early Public Action shows 62% lean toward Brooklyn and 78% favor the over.

Portland travels to Toronto as an 8.5 point edog with a total of 216.5
Portland Williams, Wainwright and Simon are out.
Toronto’s Koloko is out. Anunoby is Game time Decision.
Early Public Action shows 84% lean toward Toronto 67% favor the under.

Minnesota travels to Atlanta as 1.5 point dog with a total of 228.5
Minnesota’s Milton, MDaniels are game time decisions. Atlanta’s Mathews is out.
Early Public Action shows 79% lean toward MN and 69% favor the under

Dallas travels to Memphis as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 228.5
Memphis Morant, Kennard, Clark, Aldama are out.
Early Public Action shows 59% lean towards Dallas and the over/under is a 50/50

Golden State travels to New Orleans as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 224.5
NO’s Murphy, Marshall, Alvardo are out.
Early Public Action shows 89% lean toward NO and 58% favor the under.

Miami travels to Milwaukee as a 6.5 point dog witha total of 224.5
Miami’s Martin, Highsmith are out. Richardson, Love, and Bam are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 74% leans toward Milwaukee and 60% favor the under.

Utah travels to Denver as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 227.5
Denver’s Cancar is out Huff is a game time decision
Early Public Action shows 69% leant towards Denver and 38% favor the over.

Orlando travels to LA Lakers as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 218.5
Orlando’s HArris is a game time decision. LAkers’ Vanderbilt and Schifino are out.
Early Public Action shows 59% lean toward Orlando and 78% favor the under.

Detroit travels to OKC as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 224.5.
Detroit's Morris,Livers and Bogdanovic are out. Wiseman is a game time decision.
OKC J Williams is out and K Williams is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 68% lean toward OKC and 85% favor the under.
(not official picks)

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Barnes Brothers: World Cup Preview - Part 2
01:03:49
Barnes Brothers MEGA World Cup Preview
01:57:40
Barnes Brothers Do It Again!!!!

What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

00:08:15
SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SEC Preview Podcast
Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB
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Smokehouse Mike's NBA
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World Cup Semi Finals England vs Argentina - My Picks

0.5% Over 2.5 goals at 39c (good to 44c)
0.5% Both teams to score at 52c (good to 56c)
(Optional) 0.5% Game to go to penalties at 19c (good to 22c)

The second semi final will begin shortly between England and Argentina. This will be a fiery semi final as the two countries have a historical football rivalry going back to the 1980s when Diego Maradona scored his infamous "Hand of God" goal before going an mazy run to score one of the all time World Cup goals. It was a tense matchup even back then due to the military conflict between England and Argentina. This conflict may go back to before many fans were born but there is certainly no love lost between these teams when it comes to football.

England made it to the semi final with an athletic, transition based system under Thomas Tuchel. This has been effective against opponents who play more openly, such as Croatia and Mexico while struggling more against opponents who are able to ...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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