SportsPicks
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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokehouse Mike’s NBA Wednesday November 1st

RECAP:

NY covered as a 3.5 point favorite against Cleveland winning 109 to 91.
The under cashes

San Antonio covered as a 6.5 point dog against Phoenix winning 115 to 114.
The over cashed in.

LA covered as a 6.5 point favorite against Orlando winning 118 to 102.
The under cashed on this one.

PREVIEW:

Milwaukee travels to Toronto as a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 224.5
Milwauke’s Bauchamp is a game time decision. Toronto’s Koloko is out. Achiuwa is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 90% lean toward Milwaukee and 62% favor the under.

Portland travels to Detroit as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 216.5
Portland Wainright and Simon are out. Detroit Bogdanovic, Livers, Morris are out. Duren is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 74% lean toward Detroit and 86% favor the over.

New Orleans travels to OKC as a 3.5 pt dog with a total of 227.5
NO’s Murphy, Marshall and Alvarado are out. Ingram is a game time decision. OKC Williams is out.
Early Public Action shows 55% lean toward New Orleans and 56% favor the under.

Indiana travels to Boston as an 11.5 point dog with a total of 234.5 Indiana’s Smith, Mathurin and Haliburton are Game time decisions. Boston’s Queta is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 54% lean toward Boston and 60% favor the under.

Cleveland travels to NY as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 209.5
Clevland’s Allen, Garland, Jerome, Rubio are out. LeVert is a game time decision.
NY’s Barrett is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 59% lean toward NY and 66% favor the over.

Brooklyn travels to Miami as a 6.5 point dog with a total of 223.5
Brooklyn’s Claxton, Dinwiddie and Johnson are out. Smith is a game time decision.
Miami’s Martin is out. Love, Highsmith , Butler and BAM are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 72% leant toward Miami and 64% favor the over.

Washington travels to Atlanta as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 238.5
Washington’s Gafford is a game time decision. Atlanta’s Mathews is out. Young is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 66% lean toward Atlanta and 59% favor the over.

Denver travels to Minnesota as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 219.5
Denver’s Cancar is out. Minnesota’s Milton, McDaniels are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 67% lean toward Denver and 51% favor the under.

Charlotte travels to Houston as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 223.5
Charlott’es Smith, Ntilikina, Martin and Bridges are out. Houston’s Oladipo, Eason are out.
Early Public Action shows 56% lean toward Houston and 69% favor the over.

Chicago travels to Dallas as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 221.5
Chicago’s Lavine is a game time decision. Dallas’s Irving is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 65% lean toward Chicago and 75% favor the over.

Memphis travels to Utah as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 225.5
Memphis’s Rose, Morant, Clarke and Aldama are out.
Early Public Action shows 66% lean toward Utah and 53% favor the under.

LA Clippers travel to La Lakers as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 226.5
Clippers’ Harden, Boston are out. Tucker, Petrusey, Mann, and Leonard are game time decisions. Lakers’ Vanderbilt, Schifino, Hachimura are out. Vincent, Reddish are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 68% lean toward Clippers and 58% favor the over.

Sacramento travels to Golden State as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 227.5
Sacramento’s Fox and Lyles are out. GS’s Thompson, Sacric and Kuminga are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 59% lean toward GS and 58% favor the over.

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World Cup Semi Finals England vs Argentina - My Picks

0.5% Over 2.5 goals at 39c (good to 44c)
0.5% Both teams to score at 52c (good to 56c)
(Optional) 0.5% Game to go to penalties at 19c (good to 22c)

The second semi final will begin shortly between England and Argentina. This will be a fiery semi final as the two countries have a historical football rivalry going back to the 1980s when Diego Maradona scored his infamous "Hand of God" goal before going an mazy run to score one of the all time World Cup goals. It was a tense matchup even back then due to the military conflict between England and Argentina. This conflict may go back to before many fans were born but there is certainly no love lost between these teams when it comes to football.

England made it to the semi final with an athletic, transition based system under Thomas Tuchel. This has been effective against opponents who play more openly, such as Croatia and Mexico while struggling more against opponents who are able to ...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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