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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokehouse Mike’s NBA Thursday November 2nd

RECAP:
Toronto covered as a 5.5 point dog against Milwaukee winning 130 to 111
The over cashed in

Portland covered as a 3.5 point dog against Detroit winning 110 to 101
The under cashed in.

New Orleans covered as a 3.5 point dog against OKC winning 110 to 106.
The under cashed in

Boston covered as an 11.5 point favorite against Indiana winning 155 to 104.
The over cashed in

Cleveland covered as a 5.5 point dog against NY winning 95 to 89.
The under cashed in

Brooklyn covered asa 6.5 point dog against Minnesota winning 109 to 105.
The under cashed in.

Atlanta covered as an 8.5 point favorite against Washington winning 130 to 121.
The over cashed in

Minnesota covered as a 2.5 point dog against Denver winning 110 to 89.
The under cashed in

Houston covered as a 2.5 point favorite against Charlotte winning 128 to 119.
The over cashed

Dallas covered as a 4.5 point favorite against Chicago winning 114 to 105.
The under cashed in.

Utah covered as a 2.5 point favorite against Memphis winning 133 to 109.
The over cashed in

Lakers covered as a 4.5 point favorite against the Clippers winning 130 to 125.
The over cashed in

Sacramento covered as a 7.5 point dog against GS losing 101 to 102.
The under cashed in

PREVIEW:
Toronto travels to Philadelphia as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 215.5
Toronto’s Porter, Koloko are out. Achiuwa is a game time decision. Philly’s Batum is out.
Early Public Action shows 58% lean toward Philly and 55% favor the under.

Detroit travels to NO as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 217.5
Detroits’ Morris, Livers, and Bogdonovic are out. Duren and Burks are game time decisions.
New Orleans’s Murphy, Marshall and Alvarado are out. Ingram is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 90% lean toward Detroit and 73% favor the under.

Orlando travels to Utah as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 221.5
Orlando’s Harris is out.
Early Public Action shows 69% lean toward Orlando and 95% favor the under.

San Antonio travels to Phoenix as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 226.5
Phoenix’s Lee and Beal are out. Booker is a game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 91% lean toward Phoenix. The over/under is pick ‘em

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Barnes Brothers: World Cup Preview - Part 2
01:03:49
Barnes Brothers MEGA World Cup Preview
01:57:40
Barnes Brothers Do It Again!!!!

What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

00:08:15
SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SEC Preview Podcast
Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB
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Smokehouse Mike's NBA
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World Cup Semi Finals England vs Argentina - My Picks

0.5% Over 2.5 goals at 39c (good to 44c)
0.5% Both teams to score at 52c (good to 56c)
(Optional) 0.5% Game to go to penalties at 19c (good to 22c)

The second semi final will begin shortly between England and Argentina. This will be a fiery semi final as the two countries have a historical football rivalry going back to the 1980s when Diego Maradona scored his infamous "Hand of God" goal before going an mazy run to score one of the all time World Cup goals. It was a tense matchup even back then due to the military conflict between England and Argentina. This conflict may go back to before many fans were born but there is certainly no love lost between these teams when it comes to football.

England made it to the semi final with an athletic, transition based system under Thomas Tuchel. This has been effective against opponents who play more openly, such as Croatia and Mexico while struggling more against opponents who are able to ...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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