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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
November 07, 2023
Smokehouse Mike’s NBA Monday November 6th
RECAP:
Philadelphia covered as an 11.5 point favorite against Washington winning 146 to 128
The over cashed.
Dallas covered as a 3.5 point dog against Orlando winning 117 to 102.
The under cashed.
Indiana covered as a 9.5 point favorite against San Antonio winning 152 to 111.
The over cashed in.
Golden State covered as a 7.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 120 to 109.
The over cashed in.
NY covered as a 1.5 point dog against the Clippers winning 111 to 97.
The under cashed in.
Miami failed to cover as a 1.5 point favorite against the Lakers winning 108 to 107.
The under cashed in.
Milwaukee failed to cover as a 5.5 point favorite against Brooklyn winning 129 to 125.
The over cashed.
Houston covered as a 2.5 point dog against Sacramento winning 122 to 97.
The under cashed.
Minnesota covered as a 2.5 point dog against Boston winning 114 to 109 in Overtime.
The over cashed
OKC covered as a 1 point favorite against Atlanta winning 126 to 117.
The over cashed in.
Chicago covered as a 4.5 point favorite against Utah winning 130 to 113.
The over cashed.
Denver covered as a 5.5 point favorite against New Orleans winning 134 to 116.
The over cashed.
PREVIEW:
Washington travels to Charlotte as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 240.
Charlotte’s Bridges, Ntilikina are out. Martin and Rozier are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 60% lean toward Charlotte and 78% favor the over.
Boston travels to Philadelphia as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 226.5
Boston’s White and Queta are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 62% lean toward Boston and 56% favor the under.
Utah travels to Indiana as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 241.
Early Public Action shows 85% lean toward Indiana and 66% favor the under.
San Antonio travels to NY as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 224.5
San Antonio’s Vassell is out.
Early Public Action shows 87% lean toward San Antonio and 67% favor the under.
LA Clippers travel to Brooklyn as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 227.5
Clippers’s Boston is out. Plumlee and Mann are game time decisions. Brooklyn’s Johnson and Claxton are out.
Early Public Action shows 58% lean toward Clippers and 56% favor the under.
New Orleans travels to Minnesota as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 221.5
NO’s Murphy, McCollum and Marshall are out. Alvarado is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 56% lean toward Minnesota and 67% favor the over.
La Lakers travel to Houston as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 219.5
Lakers’ Vincent, Hood, Schifino, Vanderbilt are out. Hayes, Hachimura and Davis are game time decisions. Houston’s Thompson, Oladipo are out. Eason is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 59% lean toward Lakers and the over/under is 50/50
Detroit travels to Milwaukee as a 12.5 point dog with a total of 228.5
Detroits’ Bogdanovic, Livers and Morris are out. Ivey, Harris, Duren and Burks are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 69% lean toward Milwaukee and 67% favor the over.
Cleveland travels to OKC as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 233.5
Cleveland’s Rubio is out. Jerome is a game time decision. OKC’s Williams is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 87% lean toward Cleveland and 83% favor the under.
Miami travels to Memphis as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 221.5
Miami’s Martin, Jovic and Hampton are game time decisions. Memphis’s Morant, Clark are out. Tillman, Rose, Kunchar are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 94% lean toward Miami and 74% favor the over.
Phoenix travels to Chicago as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 223.5
Phoenix’s Lee is out Booker, Beal are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 84% lean toward Phoenix and 62% favor the over.
Toronto travels to Dallas as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 221.5
Toronto Koloko,Achiuwa are game time decisions.Dallas’s Kleber is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 75% lean toward Dallas and 99% favor the over.
Golden State travels to Denver as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 227.5
Denver’s Murray is out Cancar is out Jokic is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 55% lean toward Denver and the over/under is 50/50
Portland travels to Sacramento as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 220.5
Portland’s Simons, Williams and Wainright are game time decisions. Sacramento’s Lyles, Fox are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 73% lean toward Portland and 73% favor the under.
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New York Mayor Democratic Primary Update
Well, things are getting interesting.
Most of the polls up until now have shown Andrew Cuomo with a clear lead but today Emerson dropped a poll with Cuomo narrowly leading Mamdani on a first pass but after all the rounds of ranked choice voting had Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 4. When this poll came out Cuomo's price took a plunge from mid 60s to mid 30. Later in the day a poll from HarrisX / Fix The City came out with Cuomo winning comfortable. Many are skeptical of the poll because of its crosstabs. Nonetheless, Cuomo rebounded and now both candidates are close to 50c each with the election day being tomorrow.
This has been a difficult race to read. Mamdani's momentum seems to be everywhere now, almost to an absurdly astroturfed extent. At the same time, his momentum seems to be primarily among affluent whites who are very vocal online whereas Cuomo hasn't really had a ground game but has been blitzing the TV networks. Cuomo is also polling better ...
