2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
November 07, 2023
Smokehouse Mike’s NBA Monday November 6th
RECAP:
Philadelphia covered as an 11.5 point favorite against Washington winning 146 to 128
The over cashed.
Dallas covered as a 3.5 point dog against Orlando winning 117 to 102.
The under cashed.
Indiana covered as a 9.5 point favorite against San Antonio winning 152 to 111.
The over cashed in.
Golden State covered as a 7.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 120 to 109.
The over cashed in.
NY covered as a 1.5 point dog against the Clippers winning 111 to 97.
The under cashed in.
Miami failed to cover as a 1.5 point favorite against the Lakers winning 108 to 107.
The under cashed in.
Milwaukee failed to cover as a 5.5 point favorite against Brooklyn winning 129 to 125.
The over cashed.
Houston covered as a 2.5 point dog against Sacramento winning 122 to 97.
The under cashed.
Minnesota covered as a 2.5 point dog against Boston winning 114 to 109 in Overtime.
The over cashed
OKC covered as a 1 point favorite against Atlanta winning 126 to 117.
The over cashed in.
Chicago covered as a 4.5 point favorite against Utah winning 130 to 113.
The over cashed.
Denver covered as a 5.5 point favorite against New Orleans winning 134 to 116.
The over cashed.
PREVIEW:
Washington travels to Charlotte as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 240.
Charlotte’s Bridges, Ntilikina are out. Martin and Rozier are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 60% lean toward Charlotte and 78% favor the over.
Boston travels to Philadelphia as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 226.5
Boston’s White and Queta are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 62% lean toward Boston and 56% favor the under.
Utah travels to Indiana as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 241.
Early Public Action shows 85% lean toward Indiana and 66% favor the under.
San Antonio travels to NY as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 224.5
San Antonio’s Vassell is out.
Early Public Action shows 87% lean toward San Antonio and 67% favor the under.
LA Clippers travel to Brooklyn as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 227.5
Clippers’s Boston is out. Plumlee and Mann are game time decisions. Brooklyn’s Johnson and Claxton are out.
Early Public Action shows 58% lean toward Clippers and 56% favor the under.
New Orleans travels to Minnesota as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 221.5
NO’s Murphy, McCollum and Marshall are out. Alvarado is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 56% lean toward Minnesota and 67% favor the over.
La Lakers travel to Houston as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 219.5
Lakers’ Vincent, Hood, Schifino, Vanderbilt are out. Hayes, Hachimura and Davis are game time decisions. Houston’s Thompson, Oladipo are out. Eason is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 59% lean toward Lakers and the over/under is 50/50
Detroit travels to Milwaukee as a 12.5 point dog with a total of 228.5
Detroits’ Bogdanovic, Livers and Morris are out. Ivey, Harris, Duren and Burks are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 69% lean toward Milwaukee and 67% favor the over.
Cleveland travels to OKC as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 233.5
Cleveland’s Rubio is out. Jerome is a game time decision. OKC’s Williams is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 87% lean toward Cleveland and 83% favor the under.
Miami travels to Memphis as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 221.5
Miami’s Martin, Jovic and Hampton are game time decisions. Memphis’s Morant, Clark are out. Tillman, Rose, Kunchar are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 94% lean toward Miami and 74% favor the over.
Phoenix travels to Chicago as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 223.5
Phoenix’s Lee is out Booker, Beal are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 84% lean toward Phoenix and 62% favor the over.
Toronto travels to Dallas as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 221.5
Toronto Koloko,Achiuwa are game time decisions.Dallas’s Kleber is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 75% lean toward Dallas and 99% favor the over.
Golden State travels to Denver as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 227.5
Denver’s Murray is out Cancar is out Jokic is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 55% lean toward Denver and the over/under is 50/50
Portland travels to Sacramento as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 220.5
Portland’s Simons, Williams and Wainright are game time decisions. Sacramento’s Lyles, Fox are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 73% lean toward Portland and 73% favor the under.
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
