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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokehouse Mike’s NBA

RECAP Nov 8th games :
Washington covered as a 1.5 point dog against Charlotte winning 132 to 116.
The over cashed in.

Boston failed to cover as a 2.5 point favorite against Philadelphia losing 103 to 106.
The under cashed in.

NY covered as a 5.5 point favorite against Utah winning 134 to 118.
The over cashed in.

Brooklyn covered as a 5.5 dog against The Clippers winning 100 to 93.
The under cashed in.

Minnesota covered as a 9.5 point favorite against New Orleans winning 122 to 101.
The over cashed in.

Houston covered as a 1.5 point dog dog against The Lakers winning 128 to 94.
The under cashed in.

Detroit covered as a 12.5 point dog against Milwaukee losing 118 to 120.
The over cashed in.

OKC covered as a 2.5 point dog against Cleveland winning 128 to 120.
The over cashed.

Miami covered as a 1.5 point favorite against Memphis winning 108 to 102.
The under cashed in.

Phoenix covered as a 1.5 point favorite against Chicago winning in OT 116 to 115.
The over cashed in.

Toronto covered as a 4.5 point dog against Dallas winning 127 to 116.
The over cashed in.

Denver failed to cover as a 4.5 point favorite against Golden State winning 108 to 105.
The under cashed in.

Sacramento failed to cover as an 8.5 point favorite against Portland winning 121 to 118.
The over cashed in.

PREVIEW November 9th:
Milwaukee travels to Indiana as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 241.5
Milwaukee’s Lillard and Giannis are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 64% lean toward Milwaukee and 73% favor the over.

Atlanta travels to Orlando as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 231.5
Atlanta’s Matthews, Gueye and Bufkin are out. ORlando’s G.Harris and Carter are out.
Isaac, K. Harris and Fultz are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 63% lean toward Atlanta and 51% favor the over.

Smokehouse Mike’s pick of the day
Milwaukee and Indiana will go under (against the public)
Not official picks

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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