2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
November 11, 2023
Smokehouse Mike’s NBA
RECAP November 10th :
Washington failed to cover as a cover2.5 point favorite against Charlotte losing 124 to 117.
The over cashed in.
Philadelphia failed to cover as a 9.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 114 to106.
The over cashed in.
Boston covered as an 11.5 point favorite against Brooklyn winning 121 to 107.
The under cashed in.
San Antonio covered as a 7.5 point favorite against Minnesota losing 110 to 117.
The over cashed in.
Houston covered as a 1.5 point favorite against New Orleans winning 104 to 101.
The under cashed in.
Utah covered as a 5.5 point dog against Memphis winning 127 to 121.
The over cashed in.
Dallas covered as a 1.5 point favorite against LA Clippers winning 144 to 126.
The over cashed in.
Sacramento covered as a 1.5 point dog against OKC winning 105 to 98.
The under cashed in.
LA Lakers covered as a 3.5 point dog against Phoenix winning 122 to 119.
The under cashed in.
PREVIEW November 11th:
Milwaukee travels to Orlando as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 231.5
Milwaukee’s Lillard is a game time decision. Orlando’s K.Harris, Schofield are game time decisions. G. Harris and Carter are out.
Early Public Action shows 79% lean toward Milwaukee and 81% favor the over.
Toronto travels to Boston as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 223.5
Toronto’s Achiuwa, Trent are game time decisions.Koloko is out. Boston’s Queta is out.
Early Public Action shows 62% lean toward Toronto and 52% favor the over.
Miami travels to Atlanta as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 226.5
Miami’s Richardson, Jovic are game time decisions. Martin, Hero and Butler are out.
Atlanta’s Matthews is a game time decision. Gueya, Bufkin are out.
Early Public Action shows 73% lean toward Atlanta and 62% favor the under.
Cleveland travels to Golden State as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 224.5
Cleveland’s Rubio, Merrill and Jerome are out.
Early Public Action shows 77% lean toward GS and 59% favor the under.
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
