Smokehouse Mike’s NBA

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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

November 11, 2023

Smokehouse Mike’s NBA

RECAP November 10th :

Washington failed to cover as a cover2.5 point favorite against Charlotte losing 124 to 117.
The over cashed in.

Philadelphia failed to cover as a 9.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 114 to106.
The over cashed in.

Boston covered as an 11.5 point favorite against Brooklyn winning 121 to 107.
The under cashed in.

San Antonio covered as a 7.5 point favorite against Minnesota losing 110 to 117.
The over cashed in.

Houston covered as a 1.5 point favorite against New Orleans winning 104 to 101.
The under cashed in.

Utah covered as a 5.5 point dog against Memphis winning 127 to 121.
The over cashed in.

Dallas covered as a 1.5 point favorite against LA Clippers winning 144 to 126.
The over cashed in.

Sacramento covered as a 1.5 point dog against OKC winning 105 to 98.
The under cashed in.

LA Lakers covered as a 3.5 point dog against Phoenix winning 122 to 119.
The under cashed in.

PREVIEW November 11th:

Milwaukee travels to Orlando as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 231.5
Milwaukee’s Lillard is a game time decision. Orlando’s K.Harris, Schofield are game time decisions. G. Harris and Carter are out.
Early Public Action shows 79% lean toward Milwaukee and 81% favor the over.

Toronto travels to Boston as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 223.5
Toronto’s Achiuwa, Trent are game time decisions.Koloko is out. Boston’s Queta is out.
Early Public Action shows 62% lean toward Toronto and 52% favor the over.

Miami travels to Atlanta as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 226.5
Miami’s Richardson, Jovic are game time decisions. Martin, Hero and Butler are out.
Atlanta’s Matthews is a game time decision. Gueya, Bufkin are out.
Early Public Action shows 73% lean toward Atlanta and 62% favor the under.

Cleveland travels to Golden State as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 224.5
Cleveland’s Rubio, Merrill and Jerome are out.
Early Public Action shows 77% lean toward GS and 59% favor the under.

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LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

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🔥 June 21, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR Blue Jays @ CHC Cubs 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-310) — BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners 4:11 PM ET

2. 5-Leg Parlay — Odds: +200

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026

House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

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