2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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November 15, 2023
Smokehouse Mike’s NBA and NCAAMB
NCAAMB RECAP November 1t4h :
#7 TN fails to cover as a 30.5 point favorite against Woffard winning 82 to 61
The over cashed in.
#10 FL ATL covered as a 26.5 point favorite against E. MI winning 100 to 57.
The over cashed in.
#9 Duke covered as a 4.5 point favorite against MI ST winning 74 to 64. The under cashed in.
#5 UCONN failed to cover as a 44.5 point favorite against MS Valley ST winning 87 to 53.
The under cashed in.
#22 AL covered as a 20.5 point favorite against S. Bama winning 102 to 46.
The under cashed in.
#13 TX A&M covered as a 5.5 point favorite against SMU winning 79 to66.
The over cashed in.
#4 Marquette covered as a 1.5 point dog against #23 IL winning 71 to 64.
The under cashed in.
#25 CO covered as an 18.5 point favorite against Milwaukee winning 106 to 79.
The over cashed in.
KS failed to cover as a 6.5 point favorite against KY winning 89 to 84.
The over cashed in.
IA covered as an 11.5 point dog against # 8 Creighton losing 84 to 92.
The over cashed on this one.
#15 BAylor covered as a 23.5 point favorite against KC winning 99 to 61.
The over cashed in.
UC IRvine covered as an 11.5 point dog against #16 USC winning 70 to 60.
The under cashed in.
NCAAMB PREVIEW November 15th:
Rice Travels to #19 TX as a 20.5 point dog with a total of 155.5
Early public Action shows 84% lean toward TX and 77% favor the under.
NBA RECAP November 14th.
Indiana covered as a 6.5point dog against PHilly winning 132 ot 126.
The over.
Miami failed to cover against Charlotte as a 6.5 point favorite winning 111 to 105.
The under cashed in.
Atlanta covered as a 10.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 126 to 120.
The over cashed in
OKC covered as a 10.5 point fave against San Antonio winning 123 to 87.
The under cashed.
Brooklyn covered as a 2.5 point fave against ORlando winning 124 to 104.
The over cashed in.
NO covered as a 3.5 pt dog against Dallas winning 131 to 110.
The over cashed in
UT covered as a 7.5 pt fave against Portland winning 115 to 99.
The under cashed in.
LA Clippers c overed as a 4.5 point dog against Denver losing 108 to 111.
The under cashed in.
GS covered as a 3.5 pt dog against Minnesota losing 101 to 104.
The under cashed in.
LA LAkers covered as a 6.5 point favorite against Memphis winning 134 to 107.
The over cashed in.
NBA PREVIEW November 15th:
Dallas travels to washington as a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 244.5
DAllas’ Irving is a game time decision. Kleber is out. Washington’s Wright is out.
Early Public Action shows 79% lean toward Dallas and 74% favor the over.
Milwaukee travels to Toronto as a 1.5 pt fave with a total of 224.5 Milwaukee’s Livingston, Crowder, Gannis are out. Toronto’s Trent Schroder, HArper, Liberty , ANunoby are game time decisions. Koloko is out.
Early Public Action shows 72% lean toward Toronto and 73% favor the over.
Boston travels to Philadelphia as a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 224.5
Boston’s Queta, Porzingis and Brown are game time decisions. Philly’s Oubre, Batum are out. Harris, Embiid are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 51% lean toward Philadelphia and 54% favor the under.
NY travels to ATL as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 230.5
NY Barrett is a game time decision. Atlanta’s Bufkin, Gueye are out.
EArly Public action shows 56% lean toward ATL and 69%favor the over.
Orlando travels to Chicago as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 215.5
Orlando’s Carter, Fultz are out. Chicago’s Caruso, Williams are game time decisions.
Terry Derozan are out.
Early public Action shows 51% lean toward Chicago and 55% favor the under.
Minnesota travels to Phoenix as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 224.5
Minnesota’s McLaughlin is out. Phoenix’s Lee is out Gordon is game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 53% lean toward Minnesota and 79% favor the over.
Sacramento travels to LA Lakers as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 235.5
Sacramento’s Lyles, Len are out. Lakers’ Vincent, Vanderbilt, SChifino are out.
JAmes and AD are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 80% lean toward Sacramento and 60% favor the over.
Cleveland travels to Portland as a 10.5 point favorite with a total of 218.5
Cleveland’s Rubio, Jerome and Garland are out. Portland’s Simons, Brogdan are out.
Sharpe is a game time decision.
EArly Public Action shows 58% lean toward Cleveland and 64% favor the under.
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
