2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
November 16, 2023
Smokehouse Mike’s NBA and NCAAMB
NCAAMB TOP 25 RECAP November 15th :
Rice covered as a 20.5 point dog against #19 TX losing 64 to 80.
The under cashed in.
NCAAMB TOP 25 PREVIEW November 16th:
#6 Houston travels to Towson as a 20.5 point favorite with a total of 124.5
Houston’s Roberts is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 77% lean toward Houston and 52% favor the under.
NBA RECAP November 15th.
Dallas covered as a 3.5 point favorite against Washington winning 130 to 117.
The over cashed in.
Milwaukee covered as a 1.5 point favorite against Toronto winning 128 to 112.
The over cashed in.
Boston covered as a 1.5 point favorite against Philly winning 117 to 107.
The over cashed in
NY covered as a 1.5 point favorite against Atlanta winning 116 to 114.
The over cashed in.
Orlando covered as a 2.5 point dog against Chicago winning 96 to 94.
The under cashed in.
Phoenix covered as a 4.5 point favorite against Minnesota winning 133 to 115.
The over cashed in.
Sacramento covered as a 1.5 point dog against LA Lakers winning 125 to 110.
The under cashed in.
Cleveland covered as a 10.5 point favorite against Portland winning 109 to 95.
The under cashed in.
NBA PREVIEW November 16th:
Brooklyn travels to Miami as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 214.5
Brooklyn’s Thomas, Simmons are out. Miami’s Herro and Hampton are out.
Early Public Action shows 52% lean toward Miami and 60% favor the over.
OKC travels to GS as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 226.5. Golden State’s Curry and Green are out.
Early Public Action shows 91% lean toward OKC and 58% favor the under.
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
