2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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November 17, 2023
Barnes Betting Report: YPP Power Edges in NCAAF & NFL
This is just FYI. Per the recommendation of a board member from prior success, they asked for the YPP-based power rating edges in this week's games. If you were using that system, these would be the bets you would make:
NCAAF
WASH +2.5 ORST
OREG -23 ASU
UCLA +7 USC
TN +10.5 UGA
UNC +7 CLEM
RUTG +20 PENNST
MISST ST -13.5 SMISS
CCAR -3 ARMY
SMU -8.5 MEM
TULANE -9 FAU
NAVY -2.5 ECAR
MIA +1.5 LOU
LIBERTY -27 UMASS
RICE -2.5 CHAR
JMU -9 APPST
HA +13.5 WYO
CIN +6 WVA
AZ -1 UTAH
COLST -11 NEV
DUKE -3.5 UVA
IL +3 IOWA
TCU -13 BAYLOR
ND -25 WAKE FOREST
UCLA +6 USC
AIR FORCE -2 UNLV
NCST +2.5 VAT
UNC +7.5 CLEM
ULL +15.5 TROY
OHST -27.5 MN
HOU +6.5 OKST
NMXST +25.5 AUBURN
UCF +2.5 TT
SALA -10 MARSHALL
OD +6.5 GASTH
CAL -6.5 STAN
KANSAS +10 KST
UTST +4.5 BOISE
WIS -6 NEB
FIU +29.5 ARK
KY +1.5 SCAR
MO -11 FLORIDA
WASH +2.5 ORST
IOST +7.5 TEXAS
LSU -31.5 GAST
SYR +6.5 GAT
SJST -14.5 SDST
NFL
DOLPHINS -13.5 RAIDERS
BROWNS -1 STEELERS
TITANS +7 JAGS
49ERS -12 BUCS
RAMS +1 SEAHAWKS
VIKINGS +2.5 BRONCOS
CHIEFS -2.5 EAGLES
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A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
