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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokehouse Mike’s NBA and NCAAMB

NCAAMB RECAP November 17th :
#12 Minnesota covered as a 7.5 point favorite against Georgia winning 79 to 68.
The under cashed in.

#6 Houston covered as a 9.5 point favorite against UT winning 76 to 66.
The over cashed in.

Bucknell covered as a 34.5 point dog against #9 Duke losing 60 to 90.
The over cashed in.

#18 MI ST covered as a 9.5 point favorite against Butler winning 74 to 54.
The under cashed in.

#17 KY failed to cover as a 37.5 point favorite winning 101 to 67.
The over cashed in

#24 J.Madison failed to cover as an 8.5 point favorite against Radford winning 76 to 73.
The over cashed in.

#22 Bama covered as a 30.5 point favorite against Mercer winning 98 to 67.
The over cashed in.

#13 TX A&M failed to cover as a 19.5 point favorite against Oral Roberts winning 74 to 66.
The over cashed in.

UNC Greensboro covered as a 14.5 point dog against #14 Arkansas winning 78 to 72.
The over cashed in.

Valparaiso covered as a 29.5 point dog against #23 IL losing 64 to 87.
The over cashed in

#20 NC covered as a 23.5 point favorite against UC Riverside winning 77 to 52.
The under cashed in.

#21 Nova covered as a 6.5 point favorite against MD winning 57 to 40.
The under cashed in.

#3 AZ covered as a 25.5 point favorite against Belmont winning 100 to 68.
The under cashed in.
NCAAMB PREVIEW November 18th:
Bryant travels to #10 Fl Atl as a 22.5 point dog with a total of 155.5
Early Public Action shows 83% lean toward FAU and 52% favor the under.

TX Southern travels to #8 Creighton as a 31.5 point dog with a total of 147.5
Creighton’s Green is out.
Early Public Action shows 91% lean toward Creighton and 67% favor the over.

NBA RECAP November 17th.
Sacramento covered as an 8.5 point favorite against San Antonio winning 129 to 120.
The over cashed in.

NY covered as a 7.5 point favorite against Washington winning 120 to 99.
The under cashed in.

Milwaukee covered as an 8.5 point favorite against Charlotte winning 130 to 99.
The under cashed in.

Toronto covered as a 9.5 point dog against Boston winning 108 to 105.
The under cashed in.

Philly covered as a 1.5 point favorite against ATL winning 126 to 116.
The over cashed in.

Detroit covered as an 8.5 point dog against Cleveland winning 108 to 100.
The under cashed in.

NO covered as a 4.5 point dog against Denver winning 115 to 110.
The under cashed in.

Orlando covered as a 3.5 point dog against. Chicago winning 103 to 97
The under cashed in.

La Lakers failed to cover as a 9.5 point favorite against Portland winning 107 to 95.
The under cashed in.

UT covered as a 5.5 point dog against Phoenix losing 128 to 131.
The over cashed in
Houston covered as a 7.5 point dog against the Clippers losing 100 to 106.
The under cashed in.

NBA PREVIEW November 18th:
Memphis travels to San Antonio as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 226.5
Memphis’s Tillman, Smart, Morant, Kennard, and Clarke are out. LaRavia, Rose are game time decisions. San Antonio’s Vassell is out.
Early Public Action shows 86% lan toward SA and 91% favor the over.

NY travels to Charlotte as a 6.5 point favorite with a total of 223.5
NY’s Grimes, Fournier, Barrett are game time decisions. Charlotte’s Ntilikina,Martin,Rozier, Richards are out.
Early Public Action shows 76% lean toward NY and 70% favor the over.

Minnesota travels to NO as a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 219.5
Minnesota’s McLaughlin is out. NO’s Williams, Nance,Murphy, and McCollum are out.
Alvarado is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 60% lean toward Min and 57% favor the over.

Miami travels to Chicago as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 213.5
Miami Herro, and Hampton are out. Chicago’s Terry is out. Caruso is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 84% lean toward Miami and 53% favor the under.

Dallas travels to Milwaukee as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 247.5
Dallas’ Kleber is out. Milwaukee’s Middleton, Livingston, Crowder, Beauchamp are out. Giannis is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 75% lean toward Dallas and 53% favor the over.

OKC travels to GS as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 247.5
GS Green is out. Curry, Payton are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 80% lean toward OKC and 67% favor the under.

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Barnes Brothers: World Cup Preview - Part 2
01:03:49
Barnes Brothers MEGA World Cup Preview
01:57:40
Barnes Brothers Do It Again!!!!

What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

00:08:15
SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SEC Preview Podcast
Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB
Smokehouse Mike's NBA
Smokehouse Mike's NBA
LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

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World Cup Semi Finals England vs Argentina - My Picks

0.5% Over 2.5 goals at 39c (good to 44c)
0.5% Both teams to score at 52c (good to 56c)
(Optional) 0.5% Game to go to penalties at 19c (good to 22c)

The second semi final will begin shortly between England and Argentina. This will be a fiery semi final as the two countries have a historical football rivalry going back to the 1980s when Diego Maradona scored his infamous "Hand of God" goal before going an mazy run to score one of the all time World Cup goals. It was a tense matchup even back then due to the military conflict between England and Argentina. This conflict may go back to before many fans were born but there is certainly no love lost between these teams when it comes to football.

England made it to the semi final with an athletic, transition based system under Thomas Tuchel. This has been effective against opponents who play more openly, such as Croatia and Mexico while struggling more against opponents who are able to ...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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