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Smokehouse Mike’s NBA and NCAAMB

NCAAMB RECAP November 19th :
UCONN covered as a 10.5 point favorite against Indiana winning 77 to 57.
The under cashed in.

Minnesota covered as a 2.5 point favorite against KST winning 91 to 83.
The over cashed in.

Louisville covered as a 17.5 point dog against TX losing 80 to 81.
The over cashed in

MI ST covered as a 24.5 point favorite against Alcorn ST winning 81 to 49.
The under cashed in.

AZ covered as a 27.5 point favorite against TX Arlington. Winning 101 to 56.
The over cashed in.

Brown covered as a17.5 point dog against USC losing 70 to 81.
The over cashed in.

Illinois covered as a 24.5 point favorite against Southern U winning 88 to 60.
The over cashed in.

Houston covered as a12.5 point favorite against Dayton winning 69 to 55.
The under cashed in.

NCAAMB PREVIEW November 20th:
#7 TN travels to Syracuse as a 13.5 point dog with a total of 145.5
TN’s Dilione is out. ‘Cuse’s Owens, Westry are out
Early Public Action shows 70% lean toward Syr and 53% favor the over

#2 Purdue travels to #11 Gonzaga as a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 155.5
Early Public Action shows 92% lean toward Purdue and 75% favor the under.

St Joe’s travels to #17 KY as a 15.5 point favorite with a total of 149.5
Ky’s Darbyshire, Ivisic, Bradshaw and Onyenso are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 94% lean toward KY and the over.under is 50/50

#5 Uconn travels to #19 TX as a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 143.5
CT’s Castle is out. TX’s Disu is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 88% lean toward UCONN and 62% favor the over.

#25 CO travels to Richmond as a 9.5 point favorite with a total of 144.5
Early Public Action shows 72% lean toward CO and 84% favor the over.

UCLA travels to #4 Marquette as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 138.5
Early Public Action shows 83% lean toward Marq and 71% favor the over.

NBA RECAP November 19th.
Philadelphia covered as a 3.5 point favorite against Brooklyn winning 121 to 99.
The under cashed in.

Toronto covered as a 9.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 142 to 113.
The over cashed in.

Orlando covered as a4.5 point dog against Indiana winning 128 to 116.
The over cashed in

Cleveland covered as a 4.5 point dog against Denver winning 121 to 109.
The over cashed in

Sacramento covered as a 1.5 point dog against Dallas winning 129 to 113.
The under cashed in.

UT covered as a 5.5 point dog against Phoenix losing 137 to 140.
The over cashed in

Memphis covered as a 12.5 point dog against Boston losing 102 to 100.
The under cashed in.

OKC covered as a 7.5 pt favorite against Portland winning 134 to 91.
The over cashed in.

Houston covered as a 6.5 point dog against Lakers losing 104 to 105.
The under cashed in.

NBA PREVIEW November 20th:

Denver travels to Detroit as an 8.5 point fave with a total of 220.5
Denver’s Murray,Cancar are out. Detroit’s Morris,Livers, Hayes, Harris, Duren are game time decisions. Bogdanovic is out.
Early Public Action shows 77% lean toward Denver and 76% favor the over.

LA Clippers travel to San Antonio as an 8.5 point favorite with a total of 230.5
LA’s Boston,Plumlee are out. SA’s Vassell is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 74% lean toward LA and 79% favor the over.

Boston travels to Charlotte as a 9.5 point favorite with a total of 232.5
Charlotte’s Rozier, Richards, Ntilikina, Martin are out.
Early Public Action shows 63% lean toward Boston and 59% favor the under.

Milwaukee travels to Washington as a 9.5 point favorite with a total of 244.5
Milwaukee’s Mil, Livingston, Crowder, Beauchamp are out.
Washington’s Wright is out. Davis is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 87% lean toward Milwaukee and 63% favor the under.

NY travels to Minnesota as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 213.5
NY’s Grimes, Fournier are game time decisions. Minnesota’s MCLaughlin is out.
Early Public Action shows 70% lean toward NY and 86% favor the over.

Sacramento travels to NO as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 237.5
Sacramento’s Len is out. Lyles, Huerter are game time decisions. NO’s Ryan, Alvarado are game time decisions.Nancy, Murphy, McCollum are out.
Early Public Action shows 65% lean toward Dallas and 69% favor the over.

Miami travels to Chicago as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 210.5
Miami’s Herro, Hampton are out. Chicago’s Terry, Caruso are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 57% lean toward Chicago and the over/under is 50/50

Houston travels to GS as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 221.5
Houston’s Thompson, Eason, Oladipo are out. GS’s Payton, Green are out.
Early Public Action shows 59% lean toward Houston and 73% favor the over.

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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