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Smokehouse Mike’s NBA and NCAAMB

NCAAMB RECAP November 20th :
TN covered as a 13.5 point favorite against Syracuse winning 73 to 56
The under cashed in.
Purdue covered as a 5.5 point favorite against Gonzaga losing 73 to 63
The under cashed in.
St Joe’s Covered as a 15.5 point dog against KY losing 88 to 96 in OT.
The over cashed in.
UCONN covered as a 5.5 point favorite against TX winning 81 to 71.
The over cashed in.
Richmond covered as a 9.5 point dog against CO losing 59 to 64.
The over cashed in.
UCLA covered as a 4.5 point dog against Marquette losing 69 to 71.
The under cashed in.

NCAAMB PREVIEW November 21st:
#11 Gonzaga travels to Syracuse as 12.t point favorite with a total of 160.5
Syracuse’ Owens, Westery are out.
Early Public Action shows 59% lean toward Zags and 85% favor the under.

Fl St travels to #18 CO as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 151.5 FLST’s Spears is game time decisions. Gainey is out.
Early Public Action shows 67% lean toward FLST and 63% favor the under.

#22 James Madison travels to Southern IL as a 5.5 pt. Fave with a total of 146.5
S.IL’s Sharp is out. Homecker is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 67% lean toward JM and 93% favor the under.

LASalle travels to #9 Duke as a 26.5 point dog with a total of 144.5
Duke’s Reeves is a game time decision.
Early Public action shows 73% lean toward Duke and 73% favor the under.

#2 Purdue travels ot #7 TN as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 134.5
TN’s Dillone is out Awaka is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 81% lean towaf Purdue and 72% favor the under.

#4 Marquette travels ot #1 KS as a 4.5 point dog with atotal of 156.5
KS’s Evers,Cassidy are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 61% lean toward KS and 71% favor the over

NBA RECAP November 20th
LA Clippers covered as an 8.5 point favorite against SA winning 124 to 99.
The under cashed in.
Detroit covered as an 8.5 point dog against Denver losing 103 to 107.
The under cashed in.
Charlotte covered as a 9.5 point dog against Boston winning 121 to 118 in OT.
The over cashed in.
Milwaukee covered asa 9.5 point favorite against Washington winning 142 to 129.
The over cashed in
Minnesota covered as a 3.5 point fave against NY winning 117 to 100.
The over cashed in.
NO covered as a 1.5 point dog against SAC winning 129 to 93.
The under cashed in.
Miami covered as a 1.5 point fave against Chicago winning 118 to100.
The over cashed in
Houston covered as a 7.5 point dog against GS losing 116 to 121.
The over cashed in

NBA PREVIEW November 21st.

Toronto travels to Orlando as a 1.5 point dog with a total 215.5
Toronto’s Liberty, and Young are game time decisions. Koloko is out.
Orlando’s Carer, Fultz are out.
Early Public Action shows 76% lean toward Orlando and 62% favor the Under

Cleveland travels to Philadelphia as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 219.5
Cleveland’s Mitchell, Rubio and Jerome are out.Levert is agame time decision.
Philly’s Oubre is out
Early Public Action shows 56% lean toward Cleveland and the over/under is 50/50

Indiana travels to Atlanta as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 251.5
Indiana’s Nembhard is a game time decision. Atlanta’sBufkin,Gueye is out.
Early public action shows 85% lean toward Indiana and 92% favor the over.

Portland travels to Phoenix as a 13.5 point dog with a total of 225.5
Portland’s Wainright, Simons are out. Brogdon is a game time decision.
Phoenix’s Watanabe, Lee, Beal are out.
Early Public Acgtion shows 58% lean toward Portland and 83% favor the under.

UT travels to LA Lakers as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 235.5
UT’s Kessler is out. LA’s Vincent is out. Vanderbilt,JAmes ,Schifino,Davis are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 81% lean toward UT and 58% favor the under.

Smokehouse Mike’s Pick of the day
FL ST will cover the spread

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Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

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A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

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🔥 July 2, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon & evening slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Same Game Parlay+ — Odds: +130
• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts — CIN Reds @ MIL Brewers 2:11 PM ET
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An old friend of mine is with visiting his wife's family down in Mexico and he was watching the USA/Bosnia game last night.

He was watching the Mexican channel broadcast with obviously Spanish speaking commentators (my friend also speaks Spanish).

He said they spent the whole rest of the game, post-red card, just shitting on the ref, saying stuff that would get people fired on USA television 🤣🤣

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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