SportsPicks
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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokehouse Mike’s NBA and NCAAMB

NCAAMB RECAP November 20th :
TN covered as a 13.5 point favorite against Syracuse winning 73 to 56
The under cashed in.
Purdue covered as a 5.5 point favorite against Gonzaga losing 73 to 63
The under cashed in.
St Joe’s Covered as a 15.5 point dog against KY losing 88 to 96 in OT.
The over cashed in.
UCONN covered as a 5.5 point favorite against TX winning 81 to 71.
The over cashed in.
Richmond covered as a 9.5 point dog against CO losing 59 to 64.
The over cashed in.
UCLA covered as a 4.5 point dog against Marquette losing 69 to 71.
The under cashed in.

NCAAMB PREVIEW November 21st:
#11 Gonzaga travels to Syracuse as 12.t point favorite with a total of 160.5
Syracuse’ Owens, Westery are out.
Early Public Action shows 59% lean toward Zags and 85% favor the under.

Fl St travels to #18 CO as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 151.5 FLST’s Spears is game time decisions. Gainey is out.
Early Public Action shows 67% lean toward FLST and 63% favor the under.

#22 James Madison travels to Southern IL as a 5.5 pt. Fave with a total of 146.5
S.IL’s Sharp is out. Homecker is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 67% lean toward JM and 93% favor the under.

LASalle travels to #9 Duke as a 26.5 point dog with a total of 144.5
Duke’s Reeves is a game time decision.
Early Public action shows 73% lean toward Duke and 73% favor the under.

#2 Purdue travels ot #7 TN as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 134.5
TN’s Dillone is out Awaka is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 81% lean towaf Purdue and 72% favor the under.

#4 Marquette travels ot #1 KS as a 4.5 point dog with atotal of 156.5
KS’s Evers,Cassidy are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 61% lean toward KS and 71% favor the over

NBA RECAP November 20th
LA Clippers covered as an 8.5 point favorite against SA winning 124 to 99.
The under cashed in.
Detroit covered as an 8.5 point dog against Denver losing 103 to 107.
The under cashed in.
Charlotte covered as a 9.5 point dog against Boston winning 121 to 118 in OT.
The over cashed in.
Milwaukee covered asa 9.5 point favorite against Washington winning 142 to 129.
The over cashed in
Minnesota covered as a 3.5 point fave against NY winning 117 to 100.
The over cashed in.
NO covered as a 1.5 point dog against SAC winning 129 to 93.
The under cashed in.
Miami covered as a 1.5 point fave against Chicago winning 118 to100.
The over cashed in
Houston covered as a 7.5 point dog against GS losing 116 to 121.
The over cashed in

NBA PREVIEW November 21st.

Toronto travels to Orlando as a 1.5 point dog with a total 215.5
Toronto’s Liberty, and Young are game time decisions. Koloko is out.
Orlando’s Carer, Fultz are out.
Early Public Action shows 76% lean toward Orlando and 62% favor the Under

Cleveland travels to Philadelphia as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 219.5
Cleveland’s Mitchell, Rubio and Jerome are out.Levert is agame time decision.
Philly’s Oubre is out
Early Public Action shows 56% lean toward Cleveland and the over/under is 50/50

Indiana travels to Atlanta as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 251.5
Indiana’s Nembhard is a game time decision. Atlanta’sBufkin,Gueye is out.
Early public action shows 85% lean toward Indiana and 92% favor the over.

Portland travels to Phoenix as a 13.5 point dog with a total of 225.5
Portland’s Wainright, Simons are out. Brogdon is a game time decision.
Phoenix’s Watanabe, Lee, Beal are out.
Early Public Acgtion shows 58% lean toward Portland and 83% favor the under.

UT travels to LA Lakers as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 235.5
UT’s Kessler is out. LA’s Vincent is out. Vanderbilt,JAmes ,Schifino,Davis are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 81% lean toward UT and 58% favor the under.

Smokehouse Mike’s Pick of the day
FL ST will cover the spread

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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries

In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.

Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...

HEADS UP NEW MARKET WATCH

Hungarian elections Date April 2026

Who will win the 2026 Hungary general election?

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhungaryparli/hungary-parliament/kxhungaryparli-26

Who will be the Prime Minister of Hungary after their election?

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnexthungarypm/next-prime-minister-of-hungary/kxnexthungarypm-26may01

Orban has a 2/3 majority and his party has held power since 2010. The entire liberal EU Globo homo establishment is going to wage war on him to get him out.

Orban is trading at 44% to be the next prime minster. I already put 0.15% bet on him.

Based on his messaging as the anti war candidate NOT just the anti EU candidate this positions him as the favorite alone. With a long history of WALKING THE TALK TOO.

However, I don't want a repeat of Romania or the netherlands for that matter @SportsPicks. I'm building out those machine learning datelining technique so we know what's on people minds.

Hungary: will Orbán be voted out of office in 2026?

...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: SPORTSPICKS, WEEK 16, 2024 -- Tuesday, December 10, 2024

2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer. 

 

 

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Week of December 3, 2024

2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 

 

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OFFICIAL SPORTSPICKS: Turkey Week, 2024

Note: 2% of bankroll max recommended on American football unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended on soccer onless otherwise noted. 

 

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