Smokehouse Mike’s NBA

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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

November 22, 2023

Smokehouse Mike’s NBA

NBA RECAP November 21st
Orlando covers as a 1.5 point favorite against Toronto winning 126 to 107.
The over cashed.

Cleveland covers as a 7.5 point dog against Philadelphia winning 122 to 119 in OT.
The over cashed.

Indiana covers as a 3.5 point dog against Atlanta winning 157 to 152.
The over cashed in.

Phoenix covers as a 12.5 point favorite against Portland winning 120 to 107.
The over cashed in.

Lakers covered as a 7.5 point favorite against UT winning 131 to 99.
The under cashed in.

NBA PREVIEW November 22nd.
LA Clippers travels to San Antonio as an 8.5 point favorite with a total of 231.5
Clippers’ Plumlee,Boston are out. Moon is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 65% lean toward Clippers and 67% favor the under.

Washington travels to Charlotte as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 242.5
Washington’s Wright is out. Rollins and Avdija are game time decisions. Charlotte’s Rozier, Richards,Ntilikina and Martin are out.
Early public Action shows 54% lean toward Charlotte and 57% favor the over.

Denver travels to Orlando as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 218.
Denver’s Murray, Cancar are out. Nnaji is a game time decision.
Orlando’s Fultz and Carter are out.
Early public action shows 67% lean toward Denver and 71% favor the over.

Milwaukee travels to Boston as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 234.5
Milwaukee’s Crowder is out. Boston’s Tatum is a game time decision.
Early public Action shows 52% lean toward Boston and 79% favor the over.

Miami travels to Cleveland as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 210.5
Miami’s Love, Herro and Hampton are out. BAM is a game time decision.
Cleveland’s Wade and Levert are game time decisions. Rubio, Mitchell and Jerome are out
Early Public Action shows 67% lean toward Miami and 56% favor the under.

Toronto travels to Indiana as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 241.5
Toronto’s Young, Koloko are out. Liberty is a game time decision. Indiana’s Nesmith and Nembhard are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 59% lean toward Indiana and 94% favor the over.

Brooklyn travels to Atlanta as 1.5 point dog with a total of 236.5
Brooklyn’s Thomas, Smith and Simmons are out. Atlanta’s Bufkin, Gueye are out . Murphy is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 80% lean toward Brooklyn and 58% favor the over.

Memphis travels to Houston as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 212.5
Memphis’ Tillman,Smart,Morant,LaRivia,Kennard and Clarke are out. Houston’s Thompson and Oladipo are out.
Early public action shows 65 % lean toward Houston and 58% favor the under.

Philadelphia travels to Minnesota as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 220.5
Philly’s Oubre and Imbiid are out. Minnesota’s Mclaughlin and Mcdaniels are out.
Early public action shows67% lean toward MN and 53% favor the over.

Sacramento travels to New Orleans as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 235.5
Sacramento’s Vezenkov, Murray, Lyles and Duarte are game time decisions. Len and Ellis are out. NO’s Ryan, Murphy and McCullum are out. Lance is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 82% lean toward SAC and 84% favor the over.

Chicago travels to OKC as a 6.5 point favorite with a total of 225.5
Chicago’s Williams, Levine, and Caruso are game time decisions. OKC’s Williams is out.
Early Public Action shows 64% lean toward OKC and 67% favor the over.

UT travels to Portlant as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 228.5
UT’s Kessler is out. Portland’s Wainright, Simons and Minaya are out.
Early Public Action shows 54% lean toward UT and 57% favor the under.

GS travels to Phoenix as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 233.5.
GS’s Peyton and Green are out. Phoenix’s Watanabe, Lee and Beal are out.
Early Public Action shows 63% lean toward Phoenix and 84% favor the over.

Dallas travels to LA Lakers as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 241.5
Dallas’ Kleber is out. Curry is a game time decision. Laker’s Vincent, Vanderbilt, Reddish are out. James,Schifino and Davis are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 73% lean toward Dallas and 86% favor the over.

Mike’s Pick of the day:
OKC will cover the spread…

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Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

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1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
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House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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