Smokeghouse Mike's NCAAB

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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

November 24, 2023

Smokeghouse Mike's NCAAB

NCAAMB PREVIEW November 24th

#12 TX A&M travels to #19 FAU as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 143.5
TX A&M Marble is a game time decision. FAU’s Boyd, Rosado are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 87% lean toward TX A&M and over/under is pickem

#14 NC travels to #20 Arkansas as an 8.5 point favorite with a total of 154.5
NC’s Ryan is a game time decision.
Early public Action shows 86% lean toward NC and 68% favor the under.

Manhattan travels to UCONN as a 25.5 point dog with a total of 140.
UCONN Castle is out.
Early public action shows 64% lean toward UConn and 75% favor the over.

Nicholls travels to #25 MS ST as a 25.5 point dog with a total of 136.5
MS ST Scott is a game time decision. Russell, Smith, Murphy are out.
Early public action shows 79% lean toward Nicholls and 67% favor the under

OKLA travels to #23 USC as a 1 point dog with a total of 141.
USC JAmes is out
Early public action shows 71% lean toward OKLA and 67% favor the over.

Mont travels to #6 Houston as a 25.5 point dog with a total of 131.5
Early public action shows 86% lean toward Houston and 57% favor the under.

#13 BAylor travels to FL as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 157.5
Florida’s Jarvis, Handlogten, Szymczyk are out.
Early public action shows 74% lean toward Baylor and 91% favor the under.

Southern Indiana travels to #9 Duke as a 36 point favorite with a total of 146.5
Duke’s Reeves is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 57% lean toward Duke and over/under is pickem

Marshall travels to #16 KY as a 18.5 point dog with a total of 157.5
Ky’s Darbyshire, Ivisic, Bradshaw, Onyenso are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 92% lean toward KY and 69% favor the over.

#17 AL travels to OH ST asa 6.5 point favorite with a total of 153.5
OH ST’s Spencer, Chatman are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 70% lean toward AL and 75% favor the under

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IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

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April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NBA

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 18, 2026

LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

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18 hours ago

Wise Guy Round Table - 6/21/26

ANY PICKS MADE IN THIS SHOW ARE NOT SPORTSPICKS "OFFICIAL PICKS"

START TIME - 8:00 AM EST

MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

14 hours ago

🔥 June 21, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR Blue Jays @ CHC Cubs 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-310) — BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners 4:11 PM ET

2. 5-Leg Parlay — Odds: +200

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-420) — CIN @ NYY 1:36 PM ET
• Logan Webb 4+ Strikeouts (-900) — SF Giants @ MIA Marlins 1:41 PM ET
• Dustin May 4+ Strikeouts (-500) — STL Cardinals @ KC Royals 2:11 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-300) — BOS @ SEA 4:11 PM ET
Single Bet
• Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

June 02, 2026

OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026

House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 30, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 15, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

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