2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
November 24, 2023
Smokeghouse Mike's NCAAB
NCAAMB PREVIEW November 24th
#12 TX A&M travels to #19 FAU as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 143.5
TX A&M Marble is a game time decision. FAU’s Boyd, Rosado are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 87% lean toward TX A&M and over/under is pickem
#14 NC travels to #20 Arkansas as an 8.5 point favorite with a total of 154.5
NC’s Ryan is a game time decision.
Early public Action shows 86% lean toward NC and 68% favor the under.
Manhattan travels to UCONN as a 25.5 point dog with a total of 140.
UCONN Castle is out.
Early public action shows 64% lean toward UConn and 75% favor the over.
Nicholls travels to #25 MS ST as a 25.5 point dog with a total of 136.5
MS ST Scott is a game time decision. Russell, Smith, Murphy are out.
Early public action shows 79% lean toward Nicholls and 67% favor the under
OKLA travels to #23 USC as a 1 point dog with a total of 141.
USC JAmes is out
Early public action shows 71% lean toward OKLA and 67% favor the over.
Mont travels to #6 Houston as a 25.5 point dog with a total of 131.5
Early public action shows 86% lean toward Houston and 57% favor the under.
#13 BAylor travels to FL as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 157.5
Florida’s Jarvis, Handlogten, Szymczyk are out.
Early public action shows 74% lean toward Baylor and 91% favor the under.
Southern Indiana travels to #9 Duke as a 36 point favorite with a total of 146.5
Duke’s Reeves is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 57% lean toward Duke and over/under is pickem
Marshall travels to #16 KY as a 18.5 point dog with a total of 157.5
Ky’s Darbyshire, Ivisic, Bradshaw, Onyenso are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 92% lean toward KY and 69% favor the over.
#17 AL travels to OH ST asa 6.5 point favorite with a total of 153.5
OH ST’s Spencer, Chatman are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 70% lean toward AL and 75% favor the under
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
