Smokehouse Mike's NBA

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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

November 24, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NBA

NBA PREVIEW November 24th

San Antonio travels to GS as a 10.5 Point dog with a total of 234.5
GS Green is out. Payton is game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 60% lean toward SA and 70% favor the under.

Boston travels to Orlando as a 5.5 point favorite with a total 221.5
Boston’s Holiday, Brown are game time decision. Orlando’s Fultz Carter are out.
Early Public action shows 61% lean toward Orlando and 51% favor the over.

Phoenix travels to Memphis as a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 222.5
Phoenix Watanabe, Lee, Eubanks and Beal are out. Memphis’ Tillman, Smart, Morant, LaRavia, Kennard and Clarke are out. Bane, Harrison are game time decisions.
Early Public Action hows 80% lean toward Phoenix and 53% favor the over.
Miami travels to NY as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 212.5
Miamia Bam, Robinson are game time decisions. Smith, Herro, Hampton are out.
NY’s Brown and Fournier are game time decisions
Early public Action shows 67% lean toward Miami and 65% favor the under.

Chicago travels to Toronto as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 216.t
Chicago’s LAvine is a game time decision. Toronto’s Young, Liberty AChiuwa are game time decisions. Koloko is out.
Early PUblic action shows 67% lean toward Toronto and 56% favor the over.

Detroit travels to Indiana as a 9.5 point dog with atotal of 245.5
Detroits’ Morris, Jarris, Bogdonovic is out. Indiana’s NEsmith, NEmbhard are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 51% lean toward Indiana and 60% favor the over.

Sac travels to Min as a 4.5 pt dog with a total of 229.5
Sac’s Murray, Len, Elis are out. Jones is game time decision. Min’s MClaughlin and MCDaniels are out.
Early public action shows 81% lean toward MN and 61% favor the over.

Washington travels to Milwaukee as a 13.5 point fave with a total of 246.5
Washington’s Wright, Rollins are out. Milwaukee’s Crawder are out. Giannis is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 69% lean toward Milwaukee and 57% favor the over.

Denver travels to Houston as a 3.5pt fave with a total of 214.5
Denver’s Murray Cancar are out. Houston’s Thompson and Oladipo are out.
Early public action shows 64% lean toward Denver and 74% favor the over.

NO travels to Clippers asa 5.5 point dog with a total of 226.5
NO’s McCollum, Murphy, and Ryan are out. LA’s Boston, Plumlee are out. Powell and Moon are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 87% lean toward NO and 52% favor the over.

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🔥 June 21, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR Blue Jays @ CHC Cubs 2:21 PM ET
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

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