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Smokehouse Mike's NBA

Since I've been keeping up with OKC they have covered 4 of the last 5 games. So I'm taking them again today to cover the spread.

NBA RECAP November 24th
SA covered as a 10 point dog against GS losing 112 to 118.
The over cashed in.
Orlando covered as a 5.5 point dog against Boston winning 113 to 96.
The under cashed in.
Phoenix covered as a 3.5 point fave against Memphis winning 110 to 89
The under cashed in
Miami covered as a 5.5 point dog against NY losing 98 to 100.
The under cashed in
Toronto covered as a 4.5 point favorite against Chicago winning 121 to 108.
The over cashed in.
Indiana covered as a 9.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 136 to 113.
The over cashed in.
Sacramento covered as a 4.5 point dog against Minn winning 124 to 111.
The over cashed in.
Washington covered as a 13.5 point dog against Milwaukee losing 128 to 131.
The under cashed in.
NO covered as a 5.5 point dog against LA Clippers winning 116 to 106.
The under cashed in

NBA PREVIEW November 25th

Philadelphia travels to OKC as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 229.5
Philadelphia’s Embiid,House are game time decisions. Oubre is out. OKC williams is out. Waters is a game time decision.
Early Public Acion shows 54% lean toward OKC and 73% favor the over.

Miami travels to Brooklyn as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 215.5
Miami’s Robinson,Herro,Hampton and Bam are out. Butler is a game time decision
Brooklyn’s Thomas, Smith, Simmons are out.
Early public action shows 73% lean toward Miami and 52% favor the over.

Atlanta travels to Washington as an 8.5 point fave with a total of 250.5
Atlanta’s Gueye,Bufkin are out. Washington
S Wright,Rollins,Gallinari are out.
Early Public Action shows 52% lean toward Washington and 69% favor the over.

LA Lakers travel to Cleveland as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 225.5
LA’s Vincent,VAnderbilt,HAchimura are out.LD. James, are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 51% lean toward Cleveland and 54% favor the under.

NO travels to UT as a 5.5 point fave with a total of 226.5
NO’s Ryan,Murphy are out. McCollum is a game time decision.
UT’s Markkanen,Clarkson are out. Kessler is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 61% lean toward NO and 60% favor the over.

Dallas travels to LA Clippers as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 234.5
Dallas’ Lively, Klebrer are out. Clippers’ Plumlee is out. Boston is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 87% lean toward Dallas and 54% favor the over.

Smokehouse Mike’s pick of the day OKC will go over.

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Friday, June 12, 2026

MLB
2% REDS 50% Dbacks
2% ROYALS 50% Astros

WORLD CUP
2% USA 48% Paraguay

ALL OK at 55% or less

LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

World Cup Group B - My Pick

1% Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina to draw at 27c
OR
1% Canada not to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina at 46c
OR
Some combination of the above

I'm going to keep this super brief as my wife's parents are visiting and as they are Bosnian we will be cheering for Bosnia and Herzegovina tonight. Basically what this comes down to is how close Bosnia will be able to keep the game against a Canada team that is technically very strong but can struggle to convert possession dominance into goals. We have seen this over quite a few friendlies where they just haven't quite had that cutting edge to put teams away. They face a Bosnian team that qualified via the European playoffs and beat both Wales and Italy on penalties.

Bosnia have been doing better under Sergej Barbarez who took an underperforming team with some ego issues and built a team with a tough defence but with young attacking talent coming through. What is notable is they don't panic when they go behind. They...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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