2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
SportsPicks@SportsPicks
November 25, 2023
Smokehouse Mike's NBA
Since I've been keeping up with OKC they have covered 4 of the last 5 games. So I'm taking them again today to cover the spread.
NBA RECAP November 24th
SA covered as a 10 point dog against GS losing 112 to 118.
The over cashed in.
Orlando covered as a 5.5 point dog against Boston winning 113 to 96.
The under cashed in.
Phoenix covered as a 3.5 point fave against Memphis winning 110 to 89
The under cashed in
Miami covered as a 5.5 point dog against NY losing 98 to 100.
The under cashed in
Toronto covered as a 4.5 point favorite against Chicago winning 121 to 108.
The over cashed in.
Indiana covered as a 9.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 136 to 113.
The over cashed in.
Sacramento covered as a 4.5 point dog against Minn winning 124 to 111.
The over cashed in.
Washington covered as a 13.5 point dog against Milwaukee losing 128 to 131.
The under cashed in.
NO covered as a 5.5 point dog against LA Clippers winning 116 to 106.
The under cashed in
NBA PREVIEW November 25th
Philadelphia travels to OKC as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 229.5
Philadelphia’s Embiid,House are game time decisions. Oubre is out. OKC williams is out. Waters is a game time decision.
Early Public Acion shows 54% lean toward OKC and 73% favor the over.
Miami travels to Brooklyn as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 215.5
Miami’s Robinson,Herro,Hampton and Bam are out. Butler is a game time decision
Brooklyn’s Thomas, Smith, Simmons are out.
Early public action shows 73% lean toward Miami and 52% favor the over.
Atlanta travels to Washington as an 8.5 point fave with a total of 250.5
Atlanta’s Gueye,Bufkin are out. Washington
S Wright,Rollins,Gallinari are out.
Early Public Action shows 52% lean toward Washington and 69% favor the over.
LA Lakers travel to Cleveland as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 225.5
LA’s Vincent,VAnderbilt,HAchimura are out.LD. James, are game time decisions.
Early Public Action shows 51% lean toward Cleveland and 54% favor the under.
NO travels to UT as a 5.5 point fave with a total of 226.5
NO’s Ryan,Murphy are out. McCollum is a game time decision.
UT’s Markkanen,Clarkson are out. Kessler is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 61% lean toward NO and 60% favor the over.
Dallas travels to LA Clippers as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 234.5
Dallas’ Lively, Klebrer are out. Clippers’ Plumlee is out. Boston is a game time decision.
Early Public Action shows 87% lean toward Dallas and 54% favor the over.
Smokehouse Mike’s pick of the day OKC will go over.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
What else you may like…
Videos
Podcasts
Posts
Articles
SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
