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Smokehouse Mike's NBA

NBA RECAP December 1st
NO covered as a 12.5 point favorite against SA winning 121 to 106.
The over cashed in.
Washing covered as a 105. Point favorite against Orlando losing 125 to 130.
The over cashed in.
NY covered as a 1.5 point dog against Toronto winning 119 to 106.
The over cashed in.
Memphis covered as a 9.5 point dog against Dallas winning 108 to 94.
The under cashed in.
Boston covered as a 5.5 point favorite against Philadelphia winning 125 to 119.
The over cashed in.
Denver covered as a 2.5 favorite against Phoenix winning 119 to 111.
The over cashed in.

NBA PREVIEW December 2nd
GS travels to LA Clippers as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 229.5
GS Payton,Paul,Garuba are out. Wiggins is a game time decision.LA’s Boston,Plumlee are out.
Early public action shows 59% lean toward GS and 66% favor the under

Minnesota travels to Charlotte as a 4.5 point fave with a total of 221.5
MN’s MClaughlin,McDaniels are out. Gobert, Edwards are game time decisions.
Charlotte’s Richards, Miller are game time decisions. Ntilikina,Ball,Martin are out.
Early public action shows 68% lean toward MN and the over/under is pick’em

Orlando travels to Brooklyn as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 226.5
ISaac is a game time decision. Harris,Fultz,Carter are out. Brooklyn’s Walker, Simmons and Clowney are out. Smith is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 55% lean toward Brooklyn and 90% favor the over.

Cleveland travels to Detroit as a 9.5 point favorite with a total of 226.5
Cleveland’s Levert,Wade,Rubio,Jerome are out. Detroit’s Thompson,Bogdanovic are game time decisions. Harris and Morris are out.
Early public action shows 63% lean toward Cleveland and 59% favor the over.

NO travels to Chicago as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 220.5
NO’s Ryan, Nance, Murphy,McCollum are out. Alvarado is a game time decision.
Chicago’s Bitim,Lavine are out. Derozen is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 60% lean toward NO and 52% favor the under.

Indiana travels to Mia as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 237.5
Indiana’s Smith is out. Haliburton is a game time decision. Miami’s Herro, Hampton,BAM are out.Butler is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 63% lean toward Miami and 89% favor the over.
Atlanta travels to Milwaukee as a 6.5 point dog with a total of 252.
Atlanta’s Johnson,Gueye, Bufkin are out. Mill’s Jackson is a game time decision.
Crowder,Connaughton are out.
Early public action shows 61% lean toward Milwaukee and 76% favor the over.

Memphis travels to Phoenix as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 218.5
Memphis’ Morant,Smart,LaRavia,Kennard, Clarke are out.
Phoenix’s Lee, Beal are out. Booker is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 69% lean toward Memphis and 62% favor the under.

OKC travels to Dallas as a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 235.5
Dallas’ Kelber, Hardaway,Exum and Luka are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 58% lean toward Dallas and 55% favor the over

Portland travels to UT as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 217.5
Portland’s Simons,Wainright are out. UT Olynyk,Markhanen,Dunn,Clarkson are out.
Early public action shows 82% lean toward Portland and 59% favor the under.

Denver travels to Sacramento as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 232.5
Denver’s Murray,Gordon are game time decision. Cancar is out.Sacramento’s Murray is game time decisions. Lyles and Len are out.
Early public action shows 54% lean toward Sacramento and 71% favor the over.

Houston travels to LA Lakers as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 222.5
Houston’s Thompson,Oladipo are out. Lakers’ Davis,James,Hayes,Reddish,Vincent are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 61% lean toward Houston and 61% favor the over.

Smokehouse Mike’s Pick of the day.
OKC will cover the spread

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Friday, June 12, 2026

MLB
2% REDS 50% Dbacks
2% ROYALS 50% Astros

WORLD CUP
2% USA 48% Paraguay

ALL OK at 55% or less

LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

World Cup Group B - My Pick

1% Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina to draw at 27c
OR
1% Canada not to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina at 46c
OR
Some combination of the above

I'm going to keep this super brief as my wife's parents are visiting and as they are Bosnian we will be cheering for Bosnia and Herzegovina tonight. Basically what this comes down to is how close Bosnia will be able to keep the game against a Canada team that is technically very strong but can struggle to convert possession dominance into goals. We have seen this over quite a few friendlies where they just haven't quite had that cutting edge to put teams away. They face a Bosnian team that qualified via the European playoffs and beat both Wales and Italy on penalties.

Bosnia have been doing better under Sergej Barbarez who took an underperforming team with some ego issues and built a team with a tough defence but with young attacking talent coming through. What is notable is they don't panic when they go behind. They...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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