NCAAMB TOP 25 PREVIEW December 6th
LIU travels to #15 Miami as a 28.5 point dog with a total 154.5
Early public action shows 63% lean toward LIU and 56% favor the under.
SC travels to #24 Clemson as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 139.
SC’s Dibba is a game time decision. Hemenway is out. Clark is game time decision.
Early public action shows 77% lean toward SC and 56% favor the over.
#12 TX travels to #8 Marquette as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 150.5
TX’s Disu is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 76% lean toward TX and 74 % favor the over.
Rice travels to #3 Houston as a 27.5 point dog with a total of 140.5
Rice’s Selden,Shetfield are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 92% lean toward Houston and 92% favor the over.
DePaul travels to #21 TX A&M as a 19.5 point dog with a total of 146.5 DePaul’s Murphy is a game time decision. TXAM’s Radford,Marble are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 94% lean toward TX AM and the over/under is 50/50
Denver travels to #13 CO ST as a 21 point dog with a total of 159.5
Co St’s Strong and Lake are out.
Early public action shows 56% lean toward Denver and 75% favor the under.
NBA PREVIEW December 6th
SA travels to MN as a 12.5 point dog with a total of 230.5
MN McLaughlin,McDaniels are out. Edwards is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 69% lean toward SA and 83% favor the over.
Philadelphia travels to Washington as a 10.5 point dog with a total of 239.5
Philly’s Melton is a game time decision. Washington’s Wright, Rollins are out.
Poole, Shamet, Davis are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 91% lean toward Philly and 94% favor the over.
Memphis travels to Detroit as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 230.5
Memphis’s Smart,Morant,LaRavia,KEnnard,Clark are out.
Detroit's Rhoden,Harris,Bagley is game time decision.
Early public action shows 69% lean toward Memphis and 73% favor the over.
OKC travels to Houston as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 226.5
Houston’s Thompson, Oladipo,Landale are out. Eason is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 74% lean toward OKC and 85% favor the over.
Orlando travels to Cleveland as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 224.5
Orlando’s Isaac is a game time decision. Fultz,Carter are out. Cleveland’s Wade is a game time decision. Levert,Jerome are out
Early public action shows 64% lean toward Orlando and 64% favor the under.
Miami travels to Toronto as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 219.5
Miami’s BAM,Hampton,Herro,HIghsmith are out. Toronto’s Nowell,Harper are game time decisions.Koloko is out.
Early public action shows 52% lean toward Toronto and 93% favor the over.
Brooklyn travels to Atlanta as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 243.5
Brooklyn’s Walker,Simmons are out. Clowney is a game time decision.
Johnson,Gueye,Bufkin are out.
Early public action shows 90% lean toward Brooklyn and 56% favor the under.
Charlotte travels to Chicago as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 219.5
Charlotte’s Williams is a game time decision. Ntilikina, Martin, Ball are out. Chicago’s Lavine and Bitim are out. Craig,Caruso are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 69% lean towards Charlotte and 61% favor the under.
UT travels to Dallas as an 11.5 point dog with a total of 233.5
UT’s Olynyk, Markkanen,Clarkson are out. Dallas’s Williams is a game time decision.
Kleber,Green are out.
Early public action shows 56% lean toward Dallas and 89% favor the over.
Denver travels to LA Clippers as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 227.5
Denver’s Murray,Gordon are game time decisions. Cancar is out. Clippers’
Plumlee,Boston are out.
Early public action shows 54% lean toward Clippers and 54% favor the over.
Portland travels to GS as a 12.5 point dog with a total of 225.5
Portland’s Wainright, Grant are out. Simons, Ayton is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 57% lean toward Portland and 73% favor the under.
Smokehouse Mike’s pick of the day
OKC to cover the spread. 🙂
MLB
2% REDS 50% Dbacks
2% ROYALS 50% Astros
WORLD CUP
2% USA 48% Paraguay
ALL OK at 55% or less
World Cup Group B - My Pick
1% Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina to draw at 27c
OR
1% Canada not to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina at 46c
OR
Some combination of the above
I'm going to keep this super brief as my wife's parents are visiting and as they are Bosnian we will be cheering for Bosnia and Herzegovina tonight. Basically what this comes down to is how close Bosnia will be able to keep the game against a Canada team that is technically very strong but can struggle to convert possession dominance into goals. We have seen this over quite a few friendlies where they just haven't quite had that cutting edge to put teams away. They face a Bosnian team that qualified via the European playoffs and beat both Wales and Italy on penalties.
Bosnia have been doing better under Sergej Barbarez who took an underperforming team with some ego issues and built a team with a tough defence but with young attacking talent coming through. What is notable is they don't panic when they go behind. They...
First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.
Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.