2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
December 07, 2023
Smokehouse Mike Basketball
NCAAMB Top 25 RECAP December 6th
Miami covered as a 30.5 point favorite against LIU winning 97 to 47.
The under covered.
SC covered as an 8.5 point dog against Clemson losing 67 to 72
The under cashed in.
Marquette covered as a 7.5 point favorite against TX winning 86 to 65.
The under cashed in.
Houston covered as a 27.5 point fave against Rice winning 75 to 39.
The under cashed in.
TX AM covered as a 19.5 point fave against Depual winning 89 to 64.
The over cashed in.
Denver covered as a 21.5 point dog against CO ST losing 80 to 90.
The over cashed in.
NBA RECAP December6th
SA covered as a 12.5 point dog against MN losing 94 to 102.
The under covered.
Washington covered as a 10.5 point dog against Philadelphia losing 126 to 131.
The over cashed in
Memphis covered as a 1.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 116 to 102.
The under cashed in.
Cleveland covered as a 4.5 point dog against Orlando winning 121 to 111.
The over cashed in.
Miami covered as a 3.5 point dog against Toronto winning 112 to 103.
The under cashed in.
Brooklyn covered as a 3.5 point dog against Atlanta winning 114 to 113.
The under cashed in
Chicago covered as a 4.5 point favorite against Charlotte winning 111 to 100.
The under cashed in
Houston covered as a 2.5 point dog against OKC winning 110 to 101.
The under cashed in.
Dallas covered as an 11.5 point favorite against UT winning 147 to 97.
The over cashed in.
LA Clippers covered as a 1.5 point favorite against Denver winning 111 to 102.
The under cashed in.
Portland covered as a 12.5 point dog against GS losing 106 to 110.
The under cashed in.
NBA PREVIEW December 7th
Indiana travels to Milwaukee as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 254.5
Indiana’s Smith is out. Milwaukee’s Crowder, Connaughton are out.
Early public action shows 63% lean toward Indiana and 55% favor the over.
NO travels to LA LAkers as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 229.5
NO’s Ryan and Nance are out. Lakers’ Vincent is out. Vanderbilt, James, AD are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 56% lean toward NO and 92% favor the under.
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
