2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
December 09, 2023
Smokehouse Mike's NBA
NBA RECAP December 8th
Chicago covered as a 1.5 point favorite against SA winning 121 to 112.
The over cashed in
Charlotte covered as a 5.5 point dog against Toronto winning 119 to 116.
The over cashed in.
Orlando covered as a 10.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 123 to 91.
The under cashed in.
Philadelphia covered as an 8.5 point fave against ATL winning 124 to 114.
The over cashed in.
Brooklyn covered as a 9.5 point favorite against Washington winning 124 to 97.
The under cashed in
Boston covered as a 7.5 point fave against NY winning 133 to 123.
The over cashed in
MN covered as a 5.5 point fave against Memphis winning 127 to 103.
The over cashed in
Cleveland covered as a 1.5 point fave against Miami winning 111 to 99.
The under cashed in.
GS covered as a 3.5 point dog against OKC losing 136 to 138.
The over cashed in.
Houston covered as a 9.5 point dog against Denver winning 114 to 106.
The under cashed in.
Sacramento covered as a 3.5 point fave against Phoenix winning 114 to 106.
The under cashed in.
Clippers covered as an 8.5 point favorite against UT winning 117 to 103.
The under cashed in.
Dallas covered as a 9.5 point favorite against Portland winning 125 to 112.
The over cashed in.
NBA PREVIEW December 9th
Indiana travels to T-Mobile Arena as a 4.5 point dog against LA Lakers for the Cup with a total of 241.5
Indiana’s Nembhard is out. LA’s Vincent is out, Vanderbilt, James and Davis are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 63% lean toward Indiana and 70% favor the over
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
