2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
Only for Supporters
To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter
SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
SportsPicks@SportsPicks
December 11, 2023
Smokehouse Mike's Basketball
NCAAMB Top 25 RECAP December 10th
Co covered as a 1.5 point dog against #15 Miami winning 90 to 63.
The under cashed in.
Memphis covered as a 7.5 point dog against #21 TX A&M winning 81 to 75.
The over cashed in.
NCAAMB TOP 25 PREVIEW December 11
MS Valley ST travels to #7 Gonzaga as a 40.5 point dog with a total of 141.5
Early public action shows 69% lean toward Gonzaga and 53% favor the over.
NBA PREVIEW December 11th
San Antonio travels to Houston as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 223.5
Houston’s Oladipo is out. Eason, Bullock are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 70% lean toward Houston and 72% favor the under.
Indiana travels to Detroit as a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 247.5
Indiana’s Smith,Nembhard are game time decisions. Detroit’s Rhoden,Bagley
are game time decisions.Duren,Morris are out.
Early public action shows 59% lean toward Indiana and the over/under is pick’em
Miami travels to Charlotte as a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 221.5
Miami’s Lowry is a game time decision. Highsmith, Herro, Bam are out.
Charlotte’s Williams, Smith are game time decisions. Ball, Martin, Ntilikina are out.
Early public action shows 80% lean toward Miami and 83% favor the over.
Toronto travels to NY as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 220.5
Toronto’s Nowell is a game time decision. Porter,Koloko are out. NY’s Robinson is out. Quickly,Brunson are out
Early public action shows 77% lean toward NY and 66% favor the over.
Cleveland travels to Orlando as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 227.5
Cleveland’s Rubio,Mobley,Levert,Jerome are out. Orlando’s Suggs is a game time decision.
Harris,Fultz,Carter are out.
Early public action shows 56% lean toward Orlando and 54% favor the over.
Denver travels to Atlanta as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 241.5
Denver’s Murray,Huff are game time decisions. Cancar is out. Atlanta’s Johnson,Gueye,Bufkin are out. Hunter is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 87% lean toward Denver and 86% favor the over.
Chicago travels to Milwaukee a an 11.5 point dog with a total of 232.5
Bulls’ Lavine is out. Williams,Caruso,Bitim are game time decisions. Milwaukee’s Livingston is a game time decision. Crowder,Connaughton are out.
Early public action shows 83% lean toward Chicago and 64% favor the under.
MN travels to NO as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 222.5
MN’s McLaughlin,MCDaniels,Edwards are game time decisions. NO’s Ryan, Nance are out.
Early public action shows 52% lean toward MN and 51% favor the under.
Dallas travels to Memphis as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 227.5
Dallas’ Williams,Kleber, Irving and Green are out. Memphis’s Smart, Morant,Kennard, Clarke, LaRavia are all game time decisions.
Early public action shows 62% lean toward Dallas and 66% favor the under.
UT travels to OKC as a 12.5 point dog with a total of 234.5
UT’s Markkanen, Kessler are out. Collins is a game time decision. OKC’s Dort is out.
Early public action shows 54% lean toward OKC and the over/under is pick’em
Brooklyn travels to Sacramento as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 235.5 Brooklyn’s Walker,
Smith,Simmons are out. Sacramento’s Monk,Jones are game time decisions. Len is out.
Early public action shows 63% lean toward Brooklyn and 76% favor the over.
Portland travels to the Clippers as a 13.5 point dog with a total of 220.5
Portland’s Wainright, Grant are out. Brogdon,Ayton are game time decisions.
The Clippers Primo is a game time decision. Plumlee and Diabate are out.
Early public action shows 57% lean toward LA Clippers and 69% favor the under.
Interested? Want to learn more about the community?
What else you may like…
Videos
Podcasts
Posts
Articles
SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
