Smokehouse Mike's NBA Preview

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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

December 13, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NBA Preview

NBA PREVIEW December 13th

Lakers travel to San Antonio as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 232.5
Lakers’ Davis,James, and Vanderbilt are game time decisions. Schifino and Vincent are out.
Early public action shows 59% lean toward Lakers and 77% favor the over.

Philly travels to Detroit as a 12.5 point favorite with a total of 233.5
Philadelphia’s Smith is a game time decision. Detroit’s Roden is a game time decision.
Morris, Durren,and Bagley are out.
Early public action shows 68% lean toward Philadelphia and 57% favor the over.

NO travels to Washington as a 6.5 point favorite with a total 240.5
NO’s Zion,Ryan,Nance are out. Seabron is a game time decision. Washington’s Wright,Shamet,Rollins, Omoruyi and Davis are out.
Early public action shows 76% lean toward NO and 51% favor the over.

Charlotte travels to Miami as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 221.5
Charlotte’s Ntilinika, Martin, Williams, and Ball are out. Miami’s Richardson, Highsmith, Herro, and BAM are out.
Early public action shows 51% lean toward Miami and 58% favor the over.

Atlanta travels to Toronto as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 240.5
Atlanta’s Johnson, Hunter,Gueye,Griffin and Bufkin are out. Toronto’s Koloko is out.
Early public action shows 65% lean toward Toronto and 51% favor the under.

Indiana travels to Milwaukee as a 6.5 point dog with a total of 257.5
Indiana’s Smith and Nembhard are out. Milwaukee’s Livingston,Crowder, Conaughton are out.
Early public action shows 73% lean toward Milwaukee and 67% favor the under.

Memphis travels to Houston as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 211.5
Memphis’s Smart, Morant, Kennard,Clark are out Bane is a game time decision.
Houston’s Thompson and Oladipo are out.
Ealy public action shows 84% lean toward Houston and 60% favor the under.

NY travels to UT as a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 230.5
NY’s Robinson is out. Quickly is a game time decision. UT’s Samanic, Collins and Clarkson are out. Markkanen, Klesser are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 56% lean toward NY and 52% favor the over.

Brooklyn travels to Phoenix as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 231.5
Brooklyn’s Walker, Smith and Simmons are out. Phoenix’s Okogie, Lee, and Allen are out. Little and Durant are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 52% lean toward Phoenix and 83 % favor the over.

Smokehouse Mike's pick of the day:
NBA IND and MIL to go under.

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🔥 June 21, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR Blue Jays @ CHC Cubs 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-310) — BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners 4:11 PM ET

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House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

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