2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
December 14, 2023
Smokehouse Mike's Basketball.
NCAAMB Top 25 RECAP December 13th
#15 FAU covered as a 23.5 point fave against FIU winning 94 to 60.
The under cashed in
Chicago ST covers as a 23.5 point dog against #25 NW winning 75 to 73.
The over cashed in.
UNLV covered as a 13.5 point dog against #8 Crei winning 79 to 64.
The under cashed in.
Denver covered as a 26.5 point dog against #18 BYU losing 74 to 90.
The over cashed in.
NBA RECAP December 13th
Spurs covered as a 3.5 point dog against the Lakers losing 119 to 122.
The over cashed in.
Philly covered as a 12.5 point fave against Detroit winning 129 to 111.
The over cashed in.
NO covered as a 7.5 point fave against Washington winning 142 to 122.
The over cashed in.
Miami covered as a 7.5 point fave against Charlotte winning 114 to 104.
The under cashed in.
Toronto covered as a 2.5 point favorite against Atlanta winning 135 to 128.
The over cashed in.
Milwaukee covered as a 6.5 point fave against Indiana winning 140 to 126.
The over cashed in.
Houston covered as a 9.5 point fave against Memphis winning 117 to 104.
The over cashed in.
UT covered as a 5.5 point fave against NY winning 117 to 113.
The over cashed in on this one as well.
Brooklyn covered as a 4.5 point dog against Phoenix winning 116 to 112.
The under cashed just barely.
NCAAMB TOP 25 PREVIEW December 14th
Jacksonville St travels to #23 WI as a 19.5 point dog with a total of 125.5
Early public action shows 53 % lean toward Jacksonville and 91% favor the over
UST-MN travels to #7Marq as a 24.5 point dog with a total of 143.5
Marq’s Mitchell is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 68% lean toward ST Thomas and 84% favor the over.
NBA PREVIEW December 14th
Cleveland travels to Boston as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 225.5
Cleveland Rubio,Mobley and Jerome are out. Boston’s Pozingas and Brown are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 69% lean toward Cleveland and 74% favor the over.
Chicago travels to Miami as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 216.5
Chicago’s Lavine is out. Caruso is a game time decision. Miami’s Richardson ,Highsmith, Herro and Bam are out.
Early public action shows 60% lean toward Chicago and 59% favor the under.
MN travels to Dallas as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 231.5
MN’s Mclaughlin,McDaniels,Edwards are game time decisions. Dallas’ Kelber, Irving, Green and Curry are out. Jones and Hardaway are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 91 % lean toward MN and 73% favor the over.
Brooklyn travels to Denver as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 230.5
Brooklyn’s Walker and Simmons are out. Smith is a game time decision. Denver’s Murray and Huff are game time decisions. Cancar and Caldwell-Pope are out.
Early public action shows 72% lean toward Denver and 74% favor the over.
UT travels to Portland as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 226.
UT’s Samanic, Markkanen,and Collins are game time decisions. George and Clarkston are out.
Portland’s Wainright and Brogdon, Ayton are game time decisions and Grant is out.
Early public action shows 85% lean toward Portland and 65% favor the under.
OKC travels to Sacramento as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 244.5
Sac’s Lyles is a game time decision. Len is out.
Early public action shows 63% lean toward OKC and 89% favor the over.
GS travels to LA Clippers as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 231.5
GS’s Payton and Green are out. Clipper’s Primo,George and Boston are game time decisions. Plumlee,Diabate are out.
Early public action shows 61% lean toward GS and 61% favor the over.
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Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
