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Smokehouse Mike's Basketball.

NCAAMB Top 25 RECAP December 13th

#15 FAU covered as a 23.5 point fave against FIU winning 94 to 60.
The under cashed in

Chicago ST covers as a 23.5 point dog against #25 NW winning 75 to 73.
The over cashed in.

UNLV covered as a 13.5 point dog against #8 Crei winning 79 to 64.
The under cashed in.

Denver covered as a 26.5 point dog against #18 BYU losing 74 to 90.
The over cashed in.

NBA RECAP December 13th
Spurs covered as a 3.5 point dog against the Lakers losing 119 to 122.
The over cashed in.

Philly covered as a 12.5 point fave against Detroit winning 129 to 111.
The over cashed in.

NO covered as a 7.5 point fave against Washington winning 142 to 122.
The over cashed in.

Miami covered as a 7.5 point fave against Charlotte winning 114 to 104.
The under cashed in.

Toronto covered as a 2.5 point favorite against Atlanta winning 135 to 128.
The over cashed in.

Milwaukee covered as a 6.5 point fave against Indiana winning 140 to 126.
The over cashed in.

Houston covered as a 9.5 point fave against Memphis winning 117 to 104.
The over cashed in.

UT covered as a 5.5 point fave against NY winning 117 to 113.
The over cashed in on this one as well.

Brooklyn covered as a 4.5 point dog against Phoenix winning 116 to 112.
The under cashed just barely.

NCAAMB TOP 25 PREVIEW December 14th
Jacksonville St travels to #23 WI as a 19.5 point dog with a total of 125.5
Early public action shows 53 % lean toward Jacksonville and 91% favor the over

UST-MN travels to #7Marq as a 24.5 point dog with a total of 143.5
Marq’s Mitchell is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 68% lean toward ST Thomas and 84% favor the over.

NBA PREVIEW December 14th
Cleveland travels to Boston as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 225.5
Cleveland Rubio,Mobley and Jerome are out. Boston’s Pozingas and Brown are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 69% lean toward Cleveland and 74% favor the over.

Chicago travels to Miami as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 216.5
Chicago’s Lavine is out. Caruso is a game time decision. Miami’s Richardson ,Highsmith, Herro and Bam are out.
Early public action shows 60% lean toward Chicago and 59% favor the under.

MN travels to Dallas as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 231.5
MN’s Mclaughlin,McDaniels,Edwards are game time decisions. Dallas’ Kelber, Irving, Green and Curry are out. Jones and Hardaway are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 91 % lean toward MN and 73% favor the over.

Brooklyn travels to Denver as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 230.5
Brooklyn’s Walker and Simmons are out. Smith is a game time decision. Denver’s Murray and Huff are game time decisions. Cancar and Caldwell-Pope are out.
Early public action shows 72% lean toward Denver and 74% favor the over.

UT travels to Portland as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 226.
UT’s Samanic, Markkanen,and Collins are game time decisions. George and Clarkston are out.
Portland’s Wainright and Brogdon, Ayton are game time decisions and Grant is out.
Early public action shows 85% lean toward Portland and 65% favor the under.

OKC travels to Sacramento as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 244.5
Sac’s Lyles is a game time decision. Len is out.
Early public action shows 63% lean toward OKC and 89% favor the over.

GS travels to LA Clippers as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 231.5
GS’s Payton and Green are out. Clipper’s Primo,George and Boston are game time decisions. Plumlee,Diabate are out.
Early public action shows 61% lean toward GS and 61% favor the over.

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LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

Wise Guy Round Table - 6/21/26

ANY PICKS MADE IN THIS SHOW ARE NOT SPORTSPICKS "OFFICIAL PICKS"

START TIME - 8:00 AM EST

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🔥 June 21, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR Blue Jays @ CHC Cubs 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-310) — BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners 4:11 PM ET

2. 5-Leg Parlay — Odds: +200

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-420) — CIN @ NYY 1:36 PM ET
• Logan Webb 4+ Strikeouts (-900) — SF Giants @ MIA Marlins 1:41 PM ET
• Dustin May 4+ Strikeouts (-500) — STL Cardinals @ KC Royals 2:11 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-300) — BOS @ SEA 4:11 PM ET
Single Bet
• Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET

#MLBProps #StrikeoutBets #DegenerateMode 🤑⚾

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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