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Smokehouse Mike's NBA

NBA RECAP December 15

Philly covered as 15.5 point favorite against Detroit winning 124 to 92.
The under cashed in

Washington covered as an 8.5 point dog against Indiana winning 137 to 123.
The under cashed in.

Charlotte covered as a 9.5 point dog against NO losing 107 to 112.
The under cashed in

San Antonio covered as a 6.5 point dog against Lakers winning 129 to 115.
The over cashed in.

Boston covered as a 4.5 point favorite against Orlando winning 128 to 111.
The over cashed in

Atlanta covered as a 1.5 point dog against Toronto winning 125 to 104.
The under cashed in

Houston covered as a 3.5 point favorite against Memphis winning 103 to 96.
The under cashed in.

Knicks cover as a 4.5 point dog against Phoenix winning 139 to 122.
The over cashed in.
NBA PREVIEW December 16th
Detroit travels to Milwaukee as a 17.5 point dog with a total of 241.5
Detroit’s Stewart and Bagley are game time decisions. Morris and Duren are out.
Milwaukee’s Middleton,Crowder are out. Giannis is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 59% lean toward Milwaukee and 66% favor the under.

Philadelphia travels to Charlotte as a 10.5. Point favorite with a total of 231.5
Philly’s Smith is a game time decision. Charlotte’s Williams,Washington Ntilikina Hayward are game time decisions. Martin and Ball are out.
Early public action shows 61% lean toward Philadelphia and 63% favor the over.

Atlanta travels to Cleveland as 4.5 point dog with a total of 234.5
Atlanta’s Johnston, Gueye, Griffin, and Bufkin are out. Hunter, Capela, and Bogdanovic are game time decisions. Cleveland’s Rubio,Mobley,Jerome and Garland are out.
Early public action shows 73% lean toward Cleveland and 77% favor the over.

Indiana travels to MN as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 241.5
Indiana’s Smith,Nembhard are out.Halliburton is a game time decision.MN’s Edwards is agame time decision.
Early public action shows 66% lean toward MN and 63% favor the over

Chicago travels to Miami as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 218.5
Chicago’s Lavine is out. Caruso is a game time decision. Miami’s Herro and BAM are out
Early public action shows 58% lean toward Miami and 76% favor the over.

Brooklyn travels to GS as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 235.5
Brooklyn’s Walker, Finney Smith, Simmons are out. Smith a game time decision.
GS’s Payton and Green are out.
Early public action shows 51% lean toward GS and 57% favor the under.

OKC travels to Denver as 4.5 point dog with a total of 236.5
Denver’s Murray,Puff,Gordon are game time decisions. Cancar and Pope are out.
Early public action shows 61% lean toward Denver and the over/under is a pick’em

Dallas travels to Portland as 5.5 point favorite with a total of 232.5
Dallas’ Kleber, Irving, and Green are out. Curry is a game time decision.
Portland’s Grant is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 82% lean toward Dallas and 75% favor the over.

UT travels to SAC as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 240.5
UT’s Yurtseven, Samanic,George, Collins and Clarkson are out. Tucker is a game time decision. Sac’s Len is out. Fox is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 75% lean toward Sacramento and 81% favor the over.

NY travels to LA Clippers as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 227.
NY’s Robinson is out. Clippers’ Primo,George and Diabate are game time decisions. Plumlee is out.
Early public action shows 82% lean toward Clippers 65% favor the under.

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Smokehouse Mike's NBA
LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

Wise Guy Round Table - 6/21/26

ANY PICKS MADE IN THIS SHOW ARE NOT SPORTSPICKS "OFFICIAL PICKS"

START TIME - 8:00 AM EST

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🔥 June 21, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR Blue Jays @ CHC Cubs 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-310) — BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners 4:11 PM ET

2. 5-Leg Parlay — Odds: +200

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-420) — CIN @ NYY 1:36 PM ET
• Logan Webb 4+ Strikeouts (-900) — SF Giants @ MIA Marlins 1:41 PM ET
• Dustin May 4+ Strikeouts (-500) — STL Cardinals @ KC Royals 2:11 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-300) — BOS @ SEA 4:11 PM ET
Single Bet
• Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET

#MLBProps #StrikeoutBets #DegenerateMode 🤑⚾

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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