2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 04, 2024
Smokehouse Mike's Basketball
NCAAMB Top 25 RECAP Jan 3rd
Hall covered as a 5.5 point dog against #23 Prov winning 61 to 57
The under cashed in.
MIA covered as a 1.5 point dog against #16 Clem winning 95 to 82.
The over cashed in.
NBA RECAP Jan 3rd
Cleveland covered as a 9.5 point fave against Wsh winning 140 to 101.
The over cashed in.
IND covered as a 3.5 point dog against MIL winning 142 to 130.
The over cashed in
ATL covered as a 1.5 point dog against OKC winning 141 to 138.
The over cashed in
HOU covered as a 4.5 point fave against BKN winning 112 to 101.
The under cashed in.
TOR covered as a 1.5 point dog against MEM winning 116 to 111.
The under cashed in.
NY covered as a 7.5 point fave against CHI winning 116 to 100.
The under cashed in.
DAL covered as an 11.5 point fave against POR winning 126 to 97.
The under cashed in.
LAC covered as a 3.5 point fave against PHX winning 131 to 122.
The over cashed in.
DET covered as an 8.5 point dog against UT winning 154 to 149.
The over cashed in.
MIA covered as a 5.5 point dog against LAL winning 110 to 96,
The under cashed in.
ORL covered as a 5.5 point dog against SAC losing 135 to 138.
The under cashed in.
NCAAMB TOP 25 PREVIEW Jan 4th
#15 Mem travels to Tulsa as a 9.5 point fave with a total of 154.5
Mem’s Taylor, Jones, Mills are game time decisions. Williams is out.
Early public action shows 70% lean toward Tulsa and 55% favor the over.
JMU travels to UL as a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 154.5
Early public action shows 61% lean toward JMU and 80% favor the over.
PEP travels to #24 Gonzaga as a 20.5 point dog with a total of 158.5
Gonzaga’s Krajnovic is out.
Early public action shows 85% lean toward Gonz and 78% favor the over.
COL travels to #10 AZ as a 12.5 point dog with a total of 159.5
COL’s Williams is out. DaSilva is a game time decision. AZ’s Veesaar is game time decision.
Early public action shows 54% lean toward AZ and 79% favor the over.
NBA PREVIEW Jan 4th
Milwaukee travels to San Antonio as a 10.5 point fave with a total of 248.5
Mil’s Crowder is out. SA’s McDermott,Collins are out. Branham is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 53% lean toward Milwaukee and 52% favor the over.
Denver travels to GS as a 3.5 point fave with a total of 235.5
Den’s Jackson is a game time decision. Cancar is out. GS’s Payton, Green are out.
Early public action shows 75% lean toward Denver and 64% favor the over.
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Potential Draw - Chelsea vs Liverpool
This is another Premier League fixture I am keeping an eye on in the run up to the weekend. Chelsea vs Liverpool is a fixture which ends in a draw surprisingly often. Even when one side or the other is not in great form, a common pattern is that Chelsea will take the game to Liverpool but lack the critical knockout punch to finish them off, which normally allows Liverpool to steal a point. This tends to happen more often at Stamford Bridge (where Chelsea are at home) or in cup competitions, which tend to go to extra time. At Anfield, Liverpool have a more decisive edge.
This weekend's game has Chelsea trading at about 33%, Liverpool at 43% and the draw at about 26%. I'm sceptical that Chelsea to draw at home should be trading that low. If I can finagle an entry at 25c somehow (such as via the synthetic draw, which I have posted about recently), I would be tempted to take that position. Chelsea are well capable of taking a lead into the final ...
