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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokehouse Mike's Basketball

NCAAM TOP 25 PREVIEW Jan 28th
Xavier travels to #1 UCONN as an 11.5 point dog with a total of 148.5
EArly public action shows 61% lean toward UCONN and 78% favor the over.

N.Tx travels to #22 FAU as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 133.5
FAU’s Rosadu is out.
Early public action shows the spread is a pick ‘em and 53% favor the over.

#2 PUR travels to Rutgers as a 10.5 point favorite with a total of 141.5
RUT’s Ogbole is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 58% lean toward RUT and 70% favor the under.

#19MEM travels to UAB as a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 157.5
MEM’s Pierre is game time decision.
Early public action shows 51% lean toward MEM and 63% favor the over.

NV travels to #23 NM as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 153.5
Early public action shows 68% lean toward NV and the over/under is a pick’em

NBA PREVIEW Jan 28th

OKC travels to DET as a 12.5 point favorite with a total of 238.5
OKC’s Mann is out. DET’s Morris, Cunningham,Cazalom are GTD.
Early public action shows 71% lean toward OKC and 79% favor the under.

MEM travels to IN as a 9.5 poit dog with a total of 229.5
MEM’s Smart,Rose,LaRavia, Kennard, Clarke, Bane are out.
IN’s Smith is a game time decision. Haliburton is out.
Early public action shows 67% lean toward MEM and the over/under is a pick’em

TOR travels to ATL as a 6.5 point dog with a total of 242.5
TOR’s Quickly and Nowell are out. Porter, Poeltl are GTD. ATL’s Krejci, Hunter,
Gueye, and Fernando are out.
Early public action shows 81% lean toward ATL and the over/under is pick’em

PHX travels to ORL as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 227.5
PHX’s Nurkic,Beal are game time decisions. Bol,Lee are out.
ORL’s Harris is out.
Early public action shows 89% lean toward PHX and 87% favor the under.

CHI travels to POR as a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 219.5
CHI’s Williams, Lavine, Craig are out. POR’s Walker, Simons,
Grant, Brogdon are GTD. Sharpe, Brown are out.
Early public action shows 89% lean toward CHI and 91% favor the over.

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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