2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
January 28, 2024
Smokehouse Mike's Basketball
NCAAM TOP 25 PREVIEW Jan 28th
Xavier travels to #1 UCONN as an 11.5 point dog with a total of 148.5
EArly public action shows 61% lean toward UCONN and 78% favor the over.
N.Tx travels to #22 FAU as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 133.5
FAU’s Rosadu is out.
Early public action shows the spread is a pick ‘em and 53% favor the over.
#2 PUR travels to Rutgers as a 10.5 point favorite with a total of 141.5
RUT’s Ogbole is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 58% lean toward RUT and 70% favor the under.
#19MEM travels to UAB as a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 157.5
MEM’s Pierre is game time decision.
Early public action shows 51% lean toward MEM and 63% favor the over.
NV travels to #23 NM as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 153.5
Early public action shows 68% lean toward NV and the over/under is a pick’em
NBA PREVIEW Jan 28th
OKC travels to DET as a 12.5 point favorite with a total of 238.5
OKC’s Mann is out. DET’s Morris, Cunningham,Cazalom are GTD.
Early public action shows 71% lean toward OKC and 79% favor the under.
MEM travels to IN as a 9.5 poit dog with a total of 229.5
MEM’s Smart,Rose,LaRavia, Kennard, Clarke, Bane are out.
IN’s Smith is a game time decision. Haliburton is out.
Early public action shows 67% lean toward MEM and the over/under is a pick’em
TOR travels to ATL as a 6.5 point dog with a total of 242.5
TOR’s Quickly and Nowell are out. Porter, Poeltl are GTD. ATL’s Krejci, Hunter,
Gueye, and Fernando are out.
Early public action shows 81% lean toward ATL and the over/under is pick’em
PHX travels to ORL as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 227.5
PHX’s Nurkic,Beal are game time decisions. Bol,Lee are out.
ORL’s Harris is out.
Early public action shows 89% lean toward PHX and 87% favor the under.
CHI travels to POR as a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 219.5
CHI’s Williams, Lavine, Craig are out. POR’s Walker, Simons,
Grant, Brogdon are GTD. Sharpe, Brown are out.
Early public action shows 89% lean toward CHI and 91% favor the over.
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In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
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