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Smokehouse Mike's Basketball

NCAAM Top 25 RECAP Jan 31st
#24 Bama covered as a 6.5 point favorite against GA winning 85 to 76.
The under cashed in.

NW covered as a 14.5 point dog against #2 PUR losing 96 to 105.
The over cashed in.

#18 BAY covered as a 3.5 point favorite against UCF winning 77 to 69.
The over cashed in.

FLO covered as a 7.5 point dog against #10 KY winning 94 to 91 in OT.
The over cashed in.

PROV covered as a 13.5 point dog against #1 CT losing 65 to 74.
The over cashed in.

#16 AUB covered as an 18.5 point favorite against Vandy winning 81 to 54.
The under cashed in.

BSU covered as a 10.5 point dog against #19 NM winning 86 to 78.
The over cashed in.

NBA RECAP Jan 31st
ORL covered as a 6.5 point favorite against SA winning 108 to 98.
The under cashed in.

CHI covered as a 4.5 point favorite against CHA winning 117 to 110.
The over cashed in.

LAC covered as a 9.5 point favorite against WSH winning 125 to 109.
The under cashed in.

DET covered as a 13.5 point dog against CLE losing 121 to 128.
The over cashed in.

MIA covered as a 21.5 point favorite against SAC winning 115 to 106.
The under cashed in.

MN covered as a 12.5 point favorite against DAL winning 121 to 87.
The under cashed in.

NO covered as a 1.5 point dog against HOU winning 110 to 99.
The under cashed in.

DEN covered as a 6.5 point dog against OKC losing 100 to 105.
The under cashed in.

PHX covered as a 3.5 point favorite against BKN winning 136 to 120.
The over cashed in.

POR covered as a 10.5 point dog against MIL winning 119 to 116.
The under cashed in.

NCAAM TOP 25 PREVIEW Feb 1st
#6 WI travels to NE as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 144.5
WI’s McGee is a game time decision. NE’s Lloyd,Gary,Keita
are game time decisions. Ulis is out
Early public action shows 61% lean toward NE and 51% favor the over.

CAL travels to #11 AZ as a 19.5 point dog with a total of 159.5
CAL’s Pavlovic,Okafor are game time decisions.
EArly public action shows 88 % lean toward AZ and the over/under is a pick’em

NBA PREVIEW Feb 1st
IN travels to NY as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 236.5
IN’s Smith,McConnell,Mathurin,Haliburton are game time decisions.
NY’s Washington,Grimes,Anunoby are game time decisions. Robinson is out.
Early public action shows 65% lean toward IN and 76 % favor the under.

LAL travel to BOS as an 11.5 point dog with a total of 241.5
LA’s James and Davis are GTD. Vincent and Reddish are out.
Boston’s Kornet is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 70% lean toward Boston and 77% favor the over.

CLE travels to MEM as an 8.5 point favorite with a total of 215.5
CLE’s Thompson,Jerome are out. MEM’s Williams, Smart, LaRavia,
Clarke,Bane are out. Rose, Konchar,Kennard and Aldama are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 66% lean toward CLE and 84 % favor the under.

PHI travels to UT as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 238.5
PHI’s Morris,Maxey,Batum are game time decisions.
Embiid,Melton,Lofton and Covington are out.
Early public action shows 75% lean toward UT and 70 % favor the under.

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What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

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A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

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March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

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LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

Wise Guy Round Table - 6/21/26

ANY PICKS MADE IN THIS SHOW ARE NOT SPORTSPICKS "OFFICIAL PICKS"

START TIME - 8:00 AM EST

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🔥 June 21, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +121

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-440) — CIN Reds @ NY Yankees 1:36 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR Blue Jays @ CHC Cubs 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-310) — BOS Red Sox @ SEA Mariners 4:11 PM ET

2. 5-Leg Parlay — Odds: +200

• Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (-420) — CIN @ NYY 1:36 PM ET
• Logan Webb 4+ Strikeouts (-900) — SF Giants @ MIA Marlins 1:41 PM ET
• Dustin May 4+ Strikeouts (-500) — STL Cardinals @ KC Royals 2:11 PM ET
• Dylan Cease 6+ Strikeouts (-275) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET
• Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (-300) — BOS @ SEA 4:11 PM ET
Single Bet
• Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-132) — TOR @ CHC 2:21 PM ET

#MLBProps #StrikeoutBets #DegenerateMode 🤑⚾

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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