SportsPicks
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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Super Bowl Thoughts

C'est la vie. As mentioned in the Friday night show, the luck component of the game would be the most likely reason for losing the bet. Purdy played fine, and in fact, from an adjusted net yards/attempt perspective, outperformed Mahomes in the game. The four luck factors of football I mentioned were fumble luck, special teams luck, injury luck, and penalty luck. Chiefs won on fumble luck, fumbling 5 times, but only losing 1, while 49ers lost their only fumble. Worth 6 points by itself in a typical game. Chiefs won on injury luck, as key 49ers defender Greenlaw went out early with an injury, and both Samuels and Kittle missed snaps from injuries. Worth about 3 points by itself. Chiefs won on special teams luck, as they made a 56+ yard field goal, blocked an extra point for the first time all year, and got a punt return hit off a player's foot for an easy TD opportunity. Worth 4 points by itself. Performance, personnel and matchups forecast a 2-3 penalty edge for 49ers, but the only offensive holding calls all game came against the 49ers, with video replay showing many Chiefs holding calls missed. Even with all four luck factors breaking the Chiefs way, they still needed OT to win. But that's why I always recommend limiting bet size due to the way luck can be anything but a lady sometimes. We'll get back to winning as we have now for three straight years. C'est la vie.

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Kalshi: NFL - Week 1
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SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SEC Preview Podcast
Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB
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Smokehouse Mike's NBA
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Let’s go UCLA!!

$100 longshot +1480

One half to go it’s 27-7 UCLA

great call @RobertBarnes !!!

OFFICIAL PICKS: Free Picks for Saturday

*Note: the pick is for the team listed first, in all caps. For MLB the pick is for that team to win the game on the money line. For the game total pick, the pick is for both teams combined score to finish UNDER that total for the game. For the college football picks, the pick if listed by a PLUS sign is for that team to NOT lost by more than that margin; e.g., at +13.5, the pick is for that team to either win or not lose by 14 or more. The % listed in front of each pick is the recommended MAXIMUM percentage of your bankroll -- the amount you have set aside for the year to use for trading/betting on prediction markets/sportsbooks to placer on that particular pick. The listed line is the targeted line that is available in the markets; the "ok to" is if you cannot find that line, it is ok to take the pick up to that point; e.g., if it says "ok to -130" that means it's ok to take as long as it's not higher than -130 (e.g., -135) or if it says "ok to +13" that means it's ok at any spread +13 or ...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: SPORTSPICKS, WEEK 16, 2024 -- Tuesday, December 10, 2024

2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer. 

 

 

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Week of December 3, 2024

2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 

 

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OFFICIAL SPORTSPICKS: Turkey Week, 2024

Note: 2% of bankroll max recommended on American football unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended on soccer onless otherwise noted. 

 

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