2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
February 12, 2024
Super Bowl Thoughts
C'est la vie. As mentioned in the Friday night show, the luck component of the game would be the most likely reason for losing the bet. Purdy played fine, and in fact, from an adjusted net yards/attempt perspective, outperformed Mahomes in the game. The four luck factors of football I mentioned were fumble luck, special teams luck, injury luck, and penalty luck. Chiefs won on fumble luck, fumbling 5 times, but only losing 1, while 49ers lost their only fumble. Worth 6 points by itself in a typical game. Chiefs won on injury luck, as key 49ers defender Greenlaw went out early with an injury, and both Samuels and Kittle missed snaps from injuries. Worth about 3 points by itself. Chiefs won on special teams luck, as they made a 56+ yard field goal, blocked an extra point for the first time all year, and got a punt return hit off a player's foot for an easy TD opportunity. Worth 4 points by itself. Performance, personnel and matchups forecast a 2-3 penalty edge for 49ers, but the only offensive holding calls all game came against the 49ers, with video replay showing many Chiefs holding calls missed. Even with all four luck factors breaking the Chiefs way, they still needed OT to win. But that's why I always recommend limiting bet size due to the way luck can be anything but a lady sometimes. We'll get back to winning as we have now for three straight years. C'est la vie.
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
New York Mayor Democratic Primary Update
Well, things are getting interesting.
Most of the polls up until now have shown Andrew Cuomo with a clear lead but today Emerson dropped a poll with Cuomo narrowly leading Mamdani on a first pass but after all the rounds of ranked choice voting had Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 4. When this poll came out Cuomo's price took a plunge from mid 60s to mid 30. Later in the day a poll from HarrisX / Fix The City came out with Cuomo winning comfortable. Many are skeptical of the poll because of its crosstabs. Nonetheless, Cuomo rebounded and now both candidates are close to 50c each with the election day being tomorrow.
This has been a difficult race to read. Mamdani's momentum seems to be everywhere now, almost to an absurdly astroturfed extent. At the same time, his momentum seems to be primarily among affluent whites who are very vocal online whereas Cuomo hasn't really had a ground game but has been blitzing the TV networks. Cuomo is also polling better ...
