2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
February 13, 2024
Smokehouse Mike's Basketball
NCAAM TOP 25 PREVIEW Feb 13th
#4 Marq travels to Butler as a 3.5 point favorite with a total 154.5
BUT’s Turnbull is a game time decision.
Early public action 56% lean toward Butler and 51% favor the under.
IL ST travels to #23 IN ST as a 17.5 point dog with a total of 143.5
Early public action shows 78% lean toward IN ST and 54% favor the over.
PITT travels to #21 VA as a 6.5 point dog with a total of 122.5
Early public action shows 70% lean toward VA and 52% favor the over.
#7 NC travels to SYR as a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 155.5
NC’s Tremble is a game time decision. SYR’s Carey, Westry,Cuffe are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 73% lean toward NC and 60% favor the under.
#10 IA ST travels to CIN as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 135.5
Early public action shows 57% lean toward CIN and over/under is a pick’em
MI travels to #14 IL as a 15.5 point favorite with a total of 153.5
MI’s Howard, Khayat, McDaniel are out. Burns is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 84% lean toward IL and 60% favor the over.
DUQ travels to #16 Dayton as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 134.5
Early public action shows 61% lean toward DAY and 54% favor the over.
G’twn travels to #17 CRE as a 19.5 point dog with a total of 148.5
Early public action shows 64% lean toward CRE and 54% favor the over.
#25 OK travels to #12 Baylor as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 143.5
BAY’s Love is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 54% lean toward BAY and 65% favor the under.
OLE Miss travels to #22 KY as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 162.5
KY’s Mitchell is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 59% lean toward KY and 65% favor the over.
OH ST travels to #20 WI as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 139.5
WI’s Haertlegard and Blackwell are game time decisions. McGee is out.
Early public action shows 70% lean toward WI and 55% favor the under
UCF travels to #19 BYU as a 12.5 point dog with a total of 144.5
Early public action shows 56% lean toward BYU and 51% favor the under.
NBA PREVIEW Feb 13th
OKC travels to ORL as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 223.5
OKC’s Hayward and Biyombo are out.
Early public action shows 58% lean toward ORL and 57% favor the under.
BOS travels to BKN as a 7.5 point fave with a total of 227.5
BOS’s Tillman, Springer and Porzingas is out. BKN’s Johnson is out.
Early public action shows 64% lean toward BOS and 72% favor the under
MIA travels to MIL as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 222.5
MIA’s Rozier, Richardson and Butler are out. Robinson is a game time decision.
MIL’s Middleton is out. Lopez, Lillard, Connaughton, and Giannis are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 64% lean toward MIL and 59% favor the under.
MN travels to POR as a 7.5 point favorite with total of 212.5
MN’s Moore, McDaniels and Edwards are game time decisions.
Simons, Reath are game time decisions. Sharpe, Brown, Brogdan are out.
Early public action shows 55% lean toward POR and 65% favor the over.
SAC travels to PHX as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 244.5
SAC’s Denzenkov is out. Lyles and Ford are GTD.
PHX’s Lee is out.
Early public action shows 67% lean toward PHX and 57% favor the under.
DET travels to LAL as a 10.5 point dog with a total of 242.5
DET’s Stewart and Grimes are out. Lakers’s Vincent,Vanderbilt,Reddish and Christy are out.
LeBron and Davis are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 73% lean toward DET and 59% favor the over.
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In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
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