SportsPicks
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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokehouse Mike's Basketball

NCAAM TOP 25 PREVIEW Feb 13th
#4 Marq travels to Butler as a 3.5 point favorite with a total 154.5
BUT’s Turnbull is a game time decision.
Early public action 56% lean toward Butler and 51% favor the under.

IL ST travels to #23 IN ST as a 17.5 point dog with a total of 143.5
Early public action shows 78% lean toward IN ST and 54% favor the over.

PITT travels to #21 VA as a 6.5 point dog with a total of 122.5
Early public action shows 70% lean toward VA and 52% favor the over.

#7 NC travels to SYR as a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 155.5
NC’s Tremble is a game time decision. SYR’s Carey, Westry,Cuffe are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 73% lean toward NC and 60% favor the under.

#10 IA ST travels to CIN as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 135.5
Early public action shows 57% lean toward CIN and over/under is a pick’em

MI travels to #14 IL as a 15.5 point favorite with a total of 153.5
MI’s Howard, Khayat, McDaniel are out. Burns is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 84% lean toward IL and 60% favor the over.

DUQ travels to #16 Dayton as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 134.5
Early public action shows 61% lean toward DAY and 54% favor the over.

G’twn travels to #17 CRE as a 19.5 point dog with a total of 148.5
Early public action shows 64% lean toward CRE and 54% favor the over.

#25 OK travels to #12 Baylor as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 143.5
BAY’s Love is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 54% lean toward BAY and 65% favor the under.

OLE Miss travels to #22 KY as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 162.5
KY’s Mitchell is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 59% lean toward KY and 65% favor the over.

OH ST travels to #20 WI as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 139.5
WI’s Haertlegard and Blackwell are game time decisions. McGee is out.
Early public action shows 70% lean toward WI and 55% favor the under

UCF travels to #19 BYU as a 12.5 point dog with a total of 144.5
Early public action shows 56% lean toward BYU and 51% favor the under.

NBA PREVIEW Feb 13th

OKC travels to ORL as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 223.5
OKC’s Hayward and Biyombo are out.
Early public action shows 58% lean toward ORL and 57% favor the under.

BOS travels to BKN as a 7.5 point fave with a total of 227.5
BOS’s Tillman, Springer and Porzingas is out. BKN’s Johnson is out.
Early public action shows 64% lean toward BOS and 72% favor the under

MIA travels to MIL as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 222.5
MIA’s Rozier, Richardson and Butler are out. Robinson is a game time decision.
MIL’s Middleton is out. Lopez, Lillard, Connaughton, and Giannis are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 64% lean toward MIL and 59% favor the under.

MN travels to POR as a 7.5 point favorite with total of 212.5
MN’s Moore, McDaniels and Edwards are game time decisions.
Simons, Reath are game time decisions. Sharpe, Brown, Brogdan are out.
Early public action shows 55% lean toward POR and 65% favor the over.

SAC travels to PHX as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 244.5
SAC’s Denzenkov is out. Lyles and Ford are GTD.
PHX’s Lee is out.
Early public action shows 67% lean toward PHX and 57% favor the under.

DET travels to LAL as a 10.5 point dog with a total of 242.5
DET’s Stewart and Grimes are out. Lakers’s Vincent,Vanderbilt,Reddish and Christy are out.
LeBron and Davis are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 73% lean toward DET and 59% favor the over.

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Barnes Brothers: World Cup Preview - Part 2
01:03:49
Barnes Brothers MEGA World Cup Preview
01:57:40
Barnes Brothers Do It Again!!!!

What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

00:08:15
SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SEC Preview Podcast
Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB
Smokehouse Mike's NBA
Smokehouse Mike's NBA
LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

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World Cup Semi Finals England vs Argentina - My Picks

0.5% Over 2.5 goals at 39c (good to 44c)
0.5% Both teams to score at 52c (good to 56c)
(Optional) 0.5% Game to go to penalties at 19c (good to 22c)

The second semi final will begin shortly between England and Argentina. This will be a fiery semi final as the two countries have a historical football rivalry going back to the 1980s when Diego Maradona scored his infamous "Hand of God" goal before going an mazy run to score one of the all time World Cup goals. It was a tense matchup even back then due to the military conflict between England and Argentina. This conflict may go back to before many fans were born but there is certainly no love lost between these teams when it comes to football.

England made it to the semi final with an athletic, transition based system under Thomas Tuchel. This has been effective against opponents who play more openly, such as Croatia and Mexico while struggling more against opponents who are able to ...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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