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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokeshouse Mike's Basketball

NBA PREVIEW March 1st
CHA travels to PHI as an 11.5 point favorite with a total of 213.5
CHA’s M. Williams and Ball are out. G.Williams is a game time decision.
PHI’s Oubre, Martin are game time decisions. Melton, Embiid and Covington are out.
Early public action shows 74% lean toward CHA and 88% favor the under.

CLE travels to DET as an 8.5 point fave with a total of 221.5
CLE’s Thompson and Jerome are out. Mitchell and LaVert are game time decisions.
DET’s Sasser is out.
Early public action shows 81% lean toward DET and 71% favor the under.

DAL travels to BOS as an 8.5 point dog with a total of 237.5
DAL’s Luka is a game time decision. BOS’s Brissett is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 64% lean toward DAL and 58% favor the under.

GS travels to TOR as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 235.5
GS”s Wiggins is out. Santos and Podziemski is a game time decision.
TOR’s Nowell and Boucher are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 77% lean toward GS and 59% favor the over.

POR travels to MEM as a 1.5 point dog with a total of 207.5
POR’s Sharpe, Brogdan are out. Brown and Ayton are game time decisions.
MEM’s Smart, Rose,Pippen,J. Jackson, Clarke and Bane are out.
G. Jackson,Kennard,Conchar are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 57% lean toward POR and 59% favor the under.

IN travels to NO as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 238.5
IN’s Nesmith is a game time decision. McDermott is out. NO’s Daniels is out.
Early public action shows 69% lean toward NO and 82% favor the over.
SAC travels to MN as a 6.5 point dog with a total of 224.5
SAC’s Vezenkov is out. Fox is a game time decision. MN’s Edwards and Anderson are GTD.
Early public action shows 62% lean toward MN and 57% favor the over.

MIL travels to CHI as a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 222.5
MIL’s Middleton is out. Giannis is a game time decision.
CHI’s Craig is out and Caruso is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 66% lean toward MIL and 94% favor the under.

WSH travels to LAC as a 16.5 point dog with a total of 238.5
WSH’s Coulibaly and Ball are game time decisions.
LAC’s Zubac and George are game time decisions
Early public action shows 65% lean toward LAC and 60% favor the under.

NCAAM TOP 25 PREVIEW March 1st

#21 DAY travels to L-IL as a 1.5 point favorite with a total of 137.5
Early public action shows 69% lean toward Loyola and 52% favor the over.

Air Force travels to #22 UT ST as a 16.5 point dog with a total of 136.5
AF’s Mills is a game time decision. Green is out.
Early public action shows 94% lean toward UT ST and 66% favor the over.

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Barnes Brothers MEGA World Cup Preview
01:57:40
Barnes Brothers Do It Again!!!!

What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

00:08:15
Another SportsPicks Winner!!!!

Arsenal Takes Home EPL Crown.... And The Barnes Brothers Told Ya It Would Happen!!

00:08:22
SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SEC Preview Podcast
Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB
Smokehouse Mike's NBA
Smokehouse Mike's NBA
OFFICIAL PICKS: Friday, June 12, 2026

MLB
2% REDS 50% Dbacks
2% ROYALS 50% Astros

WORLD CUP
2% USA 48% Paraguay

ALL OK at 55% or less

LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

World Cup Group B - My Pick

1% Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina to draw at 27c
OR
1% Canada not to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina at 46c
OR
Some combination of the above

I'm going to keep this super brief as my wife's parents are visiting and as they are Bosnian we will be cheering for Bosnia and Herzegovina tonight. Basically what this comes down to is how close Bosnia will be able to keep the game against a Canada team that is technically very strong but can struggle to convert possession dominance into goals. We have seen this over quite a few friendlies where they just haven't quite had that cutting edge to put teams away. They face a Bosnian team that qualified via the European playoffs and beat both Wales and Italy on penalties.

Bosnia have been doing better under Sergej Barbarez who took an underperforming team with some ego issues and built a team with a tough defence but with young attacking talent coming through. What is notable is they don't panic when they go behind. They...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
2026 PROJECTIONS

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe. 

 

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary. 
 

 

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