2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
March 30, 2024
Smokehouse Mike's Basketball
NBA RECAP Mar 29th
SA covered as an 8.5 point dog against NY winning 130 to 126 in OT.
The over cashed in.
DET covered as a 3.5 point dog against WSH winning 96 to 87.
The under cashed in.
LAC covered as 1.5 point favorite against ORL winning 100 to 97.
The under cashed in.
IN covered as a 3.5 point favorite against LAL winning 109 to 90.
The under cashed in.
GS covered as a 12.5 point favorite against CHA winning 115 to 97.
The under cashed in.
BKN covered as a 3.5 point dog against CHI winning 125 to 108.
The over cashed in.
PHI covered as a 7.5 point dog against CLE losing 114 to 117.
The over cashed in.
OKC covered as a 1.5 point dog against PHX winning 128 to 103.
The over cashed in.
MIA covered as a 13.5 point favorite against POR winning 142 to 82.
The over cashed in.
MN covered as a 2.5 point dog against DEN winning 111 to 98.
The under cashed in.
UT covered as an 8.5 point dog against HOU losing 100 to 101.
The under cashed in.
DAL covered as a 1.5 point favorite against SAC winning 107 to 103.
The under cashed in.
NBA PREVIEW March 30th
BOS travels to NO as a 6.5 point favorite with a total of 223.5
BOS’s Springer and Davidson are out. NO’s Ingrahm and Alvarado are out. Daniels is a GTD.
Early public action shows 67% lean toward BOS and 76 % favor the under.
MEM travels to ORL as a 13.5 point dog with a total of 205.5
MEM’s Williams,Wantanabe,Smart, and Bane are out.
Conchar and Aldama are game time decisions.
ORL’s Fultz is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 54% lean toward ORL and 71% favor the under.
MIL travels to ATL as a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 233.5
MIL’s Middleton, Beverly, Beauchamp and Giannis are GTD.
Lillard is out. ATL’s Young, Gueye, Griffin, Bufkin are out. Johnson is a GTD.
Early public action shows 57% lean toward ATL and 85% favor the over.
NCAAM Sweet Sixteen Recap March 29th
#11 NC ST covered as a 7.5 point dog against #2 MARQ winning 67 to 58.
The under cashed in.
#1 PUR covered as a 4.5 point favorite against #5 GONZ winning 80 to 68.
The under cashed in.
#4 Duke covered as a 3.5 point dog against #1 HOU winning 54 to 51.
The under cashed in
#2 TN covered as a 3.5 point favorite against #3 CRE winning 82 to 75.
The over cashed in.
NCAAM ROUND OF 8 PREVIEW March 30th
Elite 8 !!
#3 IL plays #1 UCONN as a 8.5 point dog with a total of 155.5
Early public action shows 62% lean toward UCONN and 75% favor the over.
#6 CLEM plays #4 AL as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 163.5
AL’s Wrightsell is a game time decision.
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
