2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
April 04, 2024
Smokehouse Mikes NBA
NBA PREVIEW April 4th
PHI travels to MIA as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 211.5
PHI’s Melton, Harris, Covington, and Bamba are out.
MIA Herro is out.
Early public action shows 64% lean toward PHI and 58% favor the over.
SAC travels to NY as a 3.5 point dog with a total of 212.5
SAC’s Monk is out. Ford is a GTD.
NY’s Washington, Robinson and Brown are GTD. Anunoby is out.
Early public action shows 59% lean toward SAC and 68% favor the over.
ATL travels to DAL as an 11.5 point dog with a total of 226.5
ATL’s Young and Gueye, Griffin are out. Dal’s Lively, Green and Brown are out.
Early public action shows 61% lean toward DAL and 57% favor the over.
GS travels to HOU as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 227.5
GS’s Saric, Kaminga are out. Payton is a GTD.
HOU’s Sengun is out.
Early public action shows 82% lean toward GS and the over/under is a pick’em
DEN travels to LAC as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 221.5
DEN’s Nnaji, Murray, Jokic and Gordon are GTD. Cancar is out
LAC’s Primmo and Leonard are out. Miller and Diabate are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 93% lean toward DEN and 59% favor the over.
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
