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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Smokehouse Mike's Basketball

NBA PREVIEW April 9th

SA travels to MEM as a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 216.5
SA’s Osman,Johnson,Barlow are out. MEM’s Wantanabe, Smart,
Kennard, Conchar, Jackson, Bane, and Aldama are out.
LaRivia and Stevens are GTD.
Early public action shows 58% lean toward SA and the over/under is a pick’em

DET travels to PHI as a 15.5 point dog with a total of 222.5
DET’s Cunningham, Fournier are GTD. Fonticichio is out.
PHI’s Melton,Maxey, Lowry, Harris and Embiid are GTD.
Covington is out.
Early public action shows 83% lean toward PHI and 82% favor the over.

IN travels to TOR as a 13.5 oint favorite with a total of 239.5
TOR’s Quickley, Porter, Poeltl, Carton, Boucher, and Barnes are out.
Dick is a game time decision.
Early public action shows 72% lean toward IN and 54% favor the under.

DAL travels to CHA as a 13.5 point favorite with a total of 223.5
DAL’s Lively, Brown are out. Kleber and Green are GTD.
CHA’s Williams is out and Bailey is a GTD.
Early public action shows 83% lean toward DAL and 79% favor the under.

BOS travels to MIL as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 228.5
BOS’s Porzingas and Horford are GTD. MIL’s Middleton, Beverly and Giannis are GTD.
Gallaway and Beauchamp are out.
Early public action shows the spread is a 50/50 and 67% favor the over.

MIA travels to ATL as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 219.5
MIA’s Rozier, O. Robinson, Love, Jovic, and BAM are GTD.
D. Robinson is out. ATL’s Young, Lundy, Griffin are out.
Early public action shows 92% lean toward MIA and 93% favor the under

WSH travels to MN as a 17.5 point dog with a total of 224.5
WSH’s Vukcevic, Kuzma, Holmes, Gill, Davis are GTD. Shamet, Jones and Bagley are out.
MN’s Towns is out
Early public action shows 73% lean toward MN and 74% favor the under.

NY travels to CHI as a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 212.5
NY’s Washington, Brown, and Bogdanovic are GTD.
CHI’s White, Dosunmu, Caruso are GTD. Phillips is out.
Early public action shows 79% lean toward NY and 52% favor the over.

ORL travels to HOU as a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 215.5
ORL’s Wagner and Isaac are GTD. HOU’s Tate and Sengun are out.
Early public action shows 56% lean toward HOU and 97% favor the over.

SAC travels to OKC as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 226.5
SAC’s Murray and Ford are GTD. Monk is out.
OKC”s Williams is a game time decision. Hayward is out.
Early public action shows 79% lean toward OKC and 99% favor the under.

DEN travels to UT as a 14.5 point favorite with a total of 224.5
DEN’s Strawther, Porter, Murray, Jokic, Gordon, and Caldwell-Pope are GTD.
UT’s Markkanen, Kessler, Dunn, Collins and Clarkson are out.
Early public action shows 99% lean toward DEN and 67% favor the under.

NO travels to POR as a 13.5 point favorite with a total of 212.5
NO’s Marshall is a game time decision. Ingraham is out.
POR’s Thybull, Simons, Sharpe, Brogdan are out. Grant, Badji are game time decisions.
Early public action shows 86% lean toward NO and 97% favor the under.

LAC travels to PHX as a 7.5 point dog with a total of 226.5
LAC’s Theis, Miller, Diabate are GTD. Primo and Leonard are out.
PHX’s Nurkic is GTD. Lee is out.
Early public action shows 82% lean toward PHX and 83% favor the over.

GS travels to LAL as a 2.5 point dog with a total of 235.5
GS’s Wiggins, Payton are GTD. Saric is out.
LAL’s Wood, Vanderbilt are out. AD ande James are GTD.
Early public action shows 67% lean toward GS and 62% favor the over.

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In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election

Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.

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OFFICIAL PICKS: SPORTSPICKS, WEEK 16, 2024 -- Tuesday, December 10, 2024

2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer. 

 

 

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Week of December 3, 2024

2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 

 

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OFFICIAL SPORTSPICKS: Turkey Week, 2024

Note: 2% of bankroll max recommended on American football unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended on soccer onless otherwise noted. 

 

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