2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
April 27, 2024
Smokehouse Mike's NBA
NBA PREVIEW April 28th
PLAY OFFS
NY travels to PHI as a 4.5 point dog with a total of 208.5
NY’s Robinson is a game time decision. Washington and Brown are out.
PHI Embiid is GTD. Covington is out.
Early public action shows 70 % lean toward NY and 85% favor the over.
LAC travel to DAL as a 5.5 point dog with a total of 208.5
LAC Leonard is a game time decision. DAL’s Prosper is out.
Luka,Hardaway are GTD.
Early public action shows 91% lean toward DAL and 88% favor the over.
MIL travels to IN as a 9.5 point dog with a total of 216.5
MIL’s Livingston is out. Middleton, Leonard and Giannis are GTD.
Early public action shows 59% lean toward MIL and 51% favor the under.
MN travels to PHX as a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 210.5
MN’s Anderson is a game time decision. PHX’s Allen is GTD and Lee is out.
Early public action shows 83% lean toward MIL and 52% favor the over.
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
