2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
June 25, 2024
OFFICIAL PICKS: Political Bets, First Debate, VP & UK
2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended on debate bets.
VP Bets
Predictit
GOP VP Vance YES 17%
GOP VP Carson YES 6%
GOP VP Burgum NO 61%
UK Election
BetUs
1% Most Seats REFORM +5500
Conservative Vote UNDER 20.5%
Labour Vote UNDER 42.5%
Liberal Dem Vote UNDER 13.5%
Reform Vote OVER 16.5%
Labour Margin of Victory Under 17.5%
Debate Bets
BetUs
Debate Exceed 90 minutes NO
10/12 Topics Discussed UNDER
First Topic Foreign Policy +250
Handshake YES +200
CNN Poll Winner Biden -125
Biden Striped Tie +175
1st State Mentioned Pennsylvania +325
1st Sip of Water Biden -130
Moderator Accused of Bias YES +150
of times Moderator Calls for Order UNDER 4.5 times
Major Gaffe NO +110
2020 Election YES -150
Fact checking interruptions UNDER 10.5 times
Biden Mention infrastructure Bill in 1st 15 minutes YES
Biden Comment on Crypto NO
Trump to mention MAGA OVER 1.5 times
1st Candidate to mention Economy Trump -120
1st Candidate to mention COVID Biden -120
1st Candidate to mention China Trump -120
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SEC Preview Podcast
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
