2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
September 29, 2024
Free Picks: NFL Props
1% max recommended.
ARI QB MURRAY OVER 237.5 passing yards
KC QB MAHOMES UNDER 247.5 passing yards
CLE QB WATSON UNDER 200.5 passing yards
MIA QB HUNTLEY OVER 162.5 passing yards
SF RB MASON UNDER 81.5 rushing yards
KC RB HUNT OVER 13.5 rushing yards
BAL RB HENRY OVER 58.5 rushing yards
BAL QB JACKSON UNDER 56.5 rushing yards
SF WR AIYUK OVER 4.5 receptions
PATS WR DOUGLAS OVER 3.5 receptions
BILLS SHAKIR UNDER 3.5 receptions
COMMANDERS WR BROWN UNDER 2.5 receptions
KC TE KELCE UNDER 4.5 receptions
BAL TE LIKELY OVER 2.5 receptions
BAL TE ANDREWS OVER 2.5 receptions
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Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
