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OFFICIAL PICKS: Week of October 29, 2024
October 28, 2024
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2% max recommended unless otherwise noted for American football. 1% max recommended for all soccer picks unless otherwise noted. NFL Player Prop picks to come. 

 

American Football

College Football

Friday, November 1

SDST +24 Boise (ok to +23)

Saturday, November 2

SYRACUSE +3.5 Va Tech (ok to +1)

ARKANSAS +6.5 Ole Miss  (ok to +3)

PURDUE +2.5 Northwestern  (ok to +1)

ILLINOIS +2.5 Minnesota  (ok to +1)

OHIO ST -3.5 Penn St. (ok to -6)

STANFORD +10.5 NC St. (ok to +10)

5% AUBURN -6.5 Vanderbilt (ok to -7)

APP ST. +2 Old Dominion  (ok to +1)

MICHIGAN ST. +7 Indiana (ok to +3)

FSU +3 UNC  (ok to +1)

FLORIDA +17 Georgia (ok to +14)

TEXAS TECH +14.5 Iowa St (ok to +13)

HOUSTON +13 Kansas St (ok to +10)

MICHIGAN +15 Oregon (ok to +13)

OKST +2.5 ASU  (ok to +1)

WISCONSIN-IOWA UNDER 43 (ok to 41)

KENTUCKY +14.5 Tennessee (ok to +14)

SMU -7 Pitt (ok to -7) 

NEVADA +1 Colorado St.  (ok to +1) 

GA SOUTHERN +6 S.Alabama (ok to +3)

USC -2.5 Washington (ok to -6)

UCLA +7 Nebraska (ok to +6)

Longshots (1% max recommended)

ARKANSAS +200 Ole Miss (ok to +180)

MICHIGAN ST. +215 Indiana  (ok to +180)

TEXAS TECH +340 Iowa State  (ok to +180)

HOUSTON +260 Kansas St  (ok to +180)

 

NFL

Thursday, October 31

JETS -1 Texans (ok to -2)

Sunday, November 2

PANTHERS +7 Saints (ok to +6)

DOLPHINS +6.5 Bills (ok to +6)

GIANTS +3.5 Commanders (ok to +3)

BROWNS +2 Chargers (ok to +1)

CARDINALS -1 Bears (ok to -2)

COWBOYS-FALCONS UNDER 52 (ok to 51)

JAGS +7.5 Eagles (ok to +6)

SEATTLE +1 Rams (ok to -1)

PACKERS +3.5 Lions (ok to +3)

BUCS +8.5 Chiefs (ok to +8)

Longshots (1% max recommended)

PACKERS +145 Lions (ok to +125)

DOLPHINS +230 Bills (ok to +200)

JAGS +275 Eagles (ok to +200)

BUCS +350 Chiefs (ok to +300)

 

Soccer

Tuesday, October 29

Italy Serie A

ACMILAN pk -130 Napoli (ok to -150)

Wednesday, October 30

Italy Serie A

MONZA +2 -190 Atalanta (ok to -200)

PARMA +1.5 -135 Juventus (ok to -150)

Thursday, October 31

Italy Serie A

GENOA +1 -185 Fiorentina (ok to -200)

0.5% GENOA +340 Fiorentina (ok to +300)

COMO pk +105 Lazio (ok to -125)

Friday, November 1

Spanish La Liga

ALAVES pk -150 Mallorca (ok to -175)

English Championship

LUTON pk -140 West Brom (ok to -160)

Saturday, November 2

English Premier League

NEWCASTLE +0.5 Arsenal (ok to -130)

0.5% NEWCASTLE +280 Arsenal (ok to +250) 

EVERTON pk Southampton (ok to -130)

BRIGHTON +1.5 Liverpool (ok to -130)

BOURNEMOUTH +1 Man City (ok to -130)

0.5% BOURNEMOUTH +425 Man City (ok to +400)

WOLVES pk Crystal Palace (ok to -130)

Italy Serie A

LECCE +1 -135 Bologna (ok to -150)

UDINESE +0.5 Juventus (ok to -130)

MONZA +1 -135 ACMilan (ok to -150)

English Championship

OXFORD pk Swansea (ok to -130)

PLYMOUTH +2 Leeds (ok to -130)

QPR +0.5 -145 Sunderland (ok to -160)

COVENTRY +1 -150 Middlesbrough (ok to -160) 

CARDIFF pk Norwich (ok to -130)

Spanish La Liga

VALENCIA +1 +105 Real Madrid (ok to -130)

German Bundesliga

HOFFENHEIM -115 St Pauli (ok to -130)

HEIDENHEIM pk -120 Holston Kiel (ok to -130)

BOCHUM +1.5 -105 Frankfurt (ok to -130)

UNION BERLIN +2 -105 Bayern Munich (ok to -130)

Sunday, November 3

English Premier League

MANU pk Chelsea (ok to -130)

Spanish La Liga

LAS PALMAS +2 -170 Atletico Madrid (ok to -190)

ESPANYOL +2.5 -125 Barcelona (ok to -130)

SEVILLA pk +100 Real Sociedad (ok to -130)

English Championship

MILWALL pk Burnley (ok to -130)

French Ligue 1

NANTES +0.5 -130 Marseille (ok to -150)

Italy Serie A

TORINO +0.5 -150 Fiorentina (ok to -160)

VERONA +0.5 Roma (ok to -130)

VENEZIA +2.5 -165 InterMilan (ok to -180)

 

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
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Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

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Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive
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