Some thoughts on this week's European football

I had been thinking of including these in some preview thoughts for this week's Champions League, Europa League and Conference League but I didn't get around to it. What I had been going around in my head is that there are certain qualitative factors that can influence whether or not you pull the trigger on a bet that has a sound statistical edge. I think this is more readily apparent in these cup competitions because experience and frame of mind start to have big impacts on how games play out. Here is what I thought of this week's games (and what I think of next weeks'):

Arsenal 0-1 PSG - this fixture is the battle of the bottlers, two teams who have been capable of looking very good on occasion but whom you can never rely on to finish the job. They are like the anti Real Madrid and anti Man City, as it were. I was reluctant to back Arsenal against Real last round (that was a mistake) but this time I thought Arsenal would put up a good fight against PSG. They didn't and from what I can tell their performance lacked courage - they're very good at performing well when the pressure isn't on against an opponent who is not at their best but they have failed to sustain a premier league title challenge this last couple of years. Their fans get very cocky when they get a few big wins but they almost always end the season trophyless. PSG had problems for years in Europe where they would look great during the group stages but would come undone the first strong team they met in the knockout stages. They seem to have finally addressed this under Enrique. I would be reluctant to back Arsenal to make a comeback at the current odds

Barcelona 3-3 Inter Milan - this turned out nothing like I expected. Inter Milan have been running on fumes for a while but it seems so too have Barcelona. Inter Milan has a very experienced squad but not quite the depth to sustain their treble push so it's not surprising they've had a dip in form. At first I thought they had similarities with the treble winning Inter team of 2010 but they remind me now a bit more of the AC Milan team of 2007 that had so much experience that they were capable of beating anyone on their day but couldn't push on all fronts for an entire season (though Inter this season have done one hell of a job keeping the treble alive for as long as they did). Although I thought the match would go under on goals, I overlooked a warning sign that it would. Inter will generally play defensively but if you give them opportunities to attack, they will. They drew 4-4 against Juventus earlier this season for example because Juventus was attacking more and giving them more gaps to exploit. They did not hold on to their lead against Barcelona, which is a strong sign that every game is pushing them to their limits now. I would still back Inter to go through at the current odds and this is a game I can easily see going to extra time. If it does, it will very likely go to penalties. The trend I've noticed when two teams go at it and make a real attempt to win the game but it goes to extra time, they tend to lack the power to land the final knockout punch. Both of these teams will feel comfortable going to penalties too (even if they don't feel so comfortable when they're taking them).

Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Manchester United - as a United fan, this was a very pleasant surprise. I unfortunately missed the first half but I caught the second half and was pleasantly surprised that United were managing the game well, not taking stupid risks. For the last few years I am never comfortable when United take a lead because at some stage they concede a stupid goal, possibly an Onana howler and then from there the next goal is only a matter of time. Second leg I have a lean towards Bilbao not to lose since Man United never do things the easy way, there's more often than not something completely avoidable to make you sweat. The counterpoint is that Bilbao struggle a lot to score, especially away, but so have United, so make of that what you will.

Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 Bodo Glimt - that late goal from Bodo Glimt keeps the tie alive and it is by no means over. Spurs are even bigger bottlers than Arsenal, if you can believe it so it would not at all surprise me if Bodo Glimt drag it to extra time and win it on penalties because they play with no fear. I'm not even sure who I'd rather face in the final because Spurs are stronger but they always have a bottle job in them. Bodo Glimt on the other hand would not be overawed by the occasion but they are clearly stronger at home than they are away. Either way, I think Bodo Glimt have a strong chance of getting a result next week so probably worth backing against the spread.

Djurgarden 1-4 Chelsea - I didn't watch this but Chelsea are very methodical in European football and are good at consolidating ties where they are favourites. They have struggled in the league for years but when they're in Europe their talent advantage normally shows.

Real Betis 2-1 Fiorentina - I didn't watch this one either but Antony seems to be doing very well there. Antony was having a torrid time at United and he seems to have made a real impact on Betis to the extent they may have been undervalued for the knockout stages. I would still give Fiorentina a good chance of turning the tie around next week but I don't have any strong leans on it either way

I may have to make adjustments that are tailored to the late stage of the season because fatigue and lack of bottle become very apparent at this stage. A team like Arsenal I should have backed in the quarters and bet against in the semis (at least the first leg). I should also have anticipated fatigue catching up to Inter Milan in Serie A and its effect in their game against Barcelona. I also should have more aggressively taken profit on Man United against Lyon in the quarter finals because even though they won, I've been seeing United throw away stupid leads for years and I don't think they're out of the woods just yet. Lots to learn from this season anyway.